Market picks
56 fixtures with a published Draw number — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.
| Match | League | Draw prob | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga | Bundesliga | 18% | A |
| Torino vs MonzaSerie A | Serie A | 28% | A |
| Brest vs NiceLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 26% | A |
| Alaves vs MalagaLa Liga | La Liga | 26% | A |
| Ipswich vs Nottingham ForestPremier League | Premier League | 26% | A |
| Aston Villa vs Manchester CityPremier League | Premier League | 22% | A |
| Rayo Vallecano vs ElcheLa Liga | La Liga | 25% | A |
| Cagliari vs BolognaSerie A | Serie A | 30% | A |
| Como vs SassuoloSerie A | Serie A | 21% | A |
| Mainz 05 vs Werder BremenBundesliga | Bundesliga | 22% | A |
| Augsburg vs Union BerlinBundesliga | Bundesliga | 23% | A |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV ElversbergBundesliga | Bundesliga | 19% | B |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SVBundesliga | Bundesliga | 26% | B |
| FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04Bundesliga | Bundesliga | 26% | B |
| Arsenal vs EvertonPremier League | Premier League | 21% | A |
| Coventry vs FulhamPremier League | Premier League | 26% | A |
| Racing Santander vs EspanyolLa Liga | La Liga | 26% | A |
| Toulouse vs Estac TroyesLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 23% | A |
| Napoli vs RomaSerie A | Serie A | 26% | A |
| Valencia vs VillarrealLa Liga | La Liga | 26% | A |
| Chelsea vs TottenhamPremier League | Premier League | 23% | A |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga | Bundesliga | 19% | A |
| Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie A | Serie A | 23% | A |
| Lens vs Paris FCLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 26% | A |
| Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga | La Liga | 19% | A |
| Inter vs FiorentinaSerie A | Serie A | 18% | A |
| Athletic Club vs GetafeLa Liga | La Liga | 24% | A |
| Liverpool vs BrightonPremier League | Premier League | 24% | A |
| Manchester United vs BournemouthPremier League | Premier League | 24% | A |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League | Premier League | 26% | A |
| Hull City vs BrentfordPremier League | Premier League | 25% | A |
| Genoa vs VeneziaSerie A | Serie A | 28% | A |
| Atalanta vs FrosinoneSerie A | Serie A | 23% | A |
| Monaco vs LilleLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 27% | A |
| Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga | Bundesliga | 24% | A |
| Celta Vigo vs Real BetisLa Liga | La Liga | 27% | A |
| Angers vs LorientLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 28% | A |
| Marseille vs Le HavreLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 21% | A |
| Rennes vs StrasbourgLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 22% | A |
| Auxerre vs Le MansLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 26% | A |
| Sunderland vs LeedsPremier League | Premier League | 28% | A |
| Freiburg vs Bayern MunichBundesliga | Bundesliga | 18% | A |
| Lecce vs JuventusSerie A | Serie A | 21% | A |
| Real Sociedad vs LevanteLa Liga | La Liga | 23% | A |
| Udinese vs AC MilanSerie A | Serie A | 23% | A |
| Paris Saint Germain vs LyonLigue 1 | Ligue 1 | 19% | A |
| Barcelona vs Real MadridLa Liga | La Liga | 17% | A |
| Sevilla vs OsasunaLa Liga | La Liga | 28% | A |
| Sassuolo vs LazioSerie A | Serie A | 27% | A |
| Roma vs CagliariSerie A | Serie A | 19% | A |
| Torino vs ComoSerie A | Serie A | 25% | A |
| AC Milan vs BolognaSerie A | Serie A | 23% | A |
| Venezia vs InterSerie A | Serie A | 17% | A |
| Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie A | Serie A | 29% | A |
| Genoa vs JuventusSerie A | Serie A | 26% | A |
| Monza vs NapoliSerie A | Serie A | 25% | A |
Draw prob = the model probability of a draw, blended with the de-vigged market price exactly as on the 1X2 page. Grade A/B = the fixture is backed by both/one team’s xG record. No bookmaker prices are shown on this page: we only record odds for 1X2, so an edge for this market would be invented.
Probability distribution
56 priced fixtures · DrawEach bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide.
Other markets for the same fixtures
Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.