Alaves vs Malaga preview
Alaves has a 53% probability of winning against Malaga, who stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favour of Alaves, with a 12% chance of occurring. Alaves has an expected goals figure of 1.74, while Malaga’s is significantly lower at 0.82.
Both teams have a 49% probability of scoring, which does not confirm that either will find the net. Recent form shows Alaves with two wins in their last six matches, while Malaga has not won in their last six. The confidence grade for this match is A, but the lack of recent victories for Malaga raises questions about their potential performance.
Why this pick: Alaves vs Malaga
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Malaga 8). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Alaves vs Malaga: model vs market
| Source | Alaves | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | +8% | -1% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alaves below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alaves vs Malaga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alaves, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.68 | 1.83 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.45 | -0.25 |
| Malaga | 4.50 | 4.36 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alaves and Malaga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Alaves / Malaga)
- 1.00 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Alaves / Malaga)
- 0.92 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alaves vs Malaga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alaves vs Malaga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alaves vs Malaga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Malaga | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alaves or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Malaga) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alaves and Malaga recent form
Alaves
2W 1D 3L
Malaga
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malaga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Malaga away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche 2026-10-24
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Alaves, previous: Celta Vigo v Alaves analysis
- Malaga, previous: Malaga v Real Sociedad analysis