Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.GladbachBundesligaA | Bundesliga | VfB StuttgartOur prob 66%Best odds 1.43 | -10% | 59% | 69% | A | 1.43 |
| Mainz 05 vs Werder BremenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Mainz 05Our prob 59%Best odds 1.73 | +9% | 66% | 57% | A | 1.73 |
| Augsburg vs Union BerlinBundesligaA | Bundesliga | AugsburgOur prob 51%Best odds 1.96 | +3% | 53% | 50% | A | 1.96 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV ElversbergBundesligaB | Bundesliga | RasenBallsport LeipzigOur prob 61%Best odds 1.40 | -32% | 38% | 69% | B | 1.40 |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SVBundesligaB | Bundesliga | SC Paderborn 07Our prob 42%Best odds 2.40 | +7% | 48% | 41% | B | 2.40 |
| FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04BundesligaB | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 45%Best odds 2.12 | -8% | 40% | 47% | B | 2.12 |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Borussia DortmundOur prob 63%Best odds 1.48 | -6% | 59% | 65% | A | 1.48 |
| Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayer LeverkusenOur prob 44%Best odds 2.39 | +11% | 52% | 41% | A | 2.39 |
| Freiburg vs Bayern MunichBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayern MunichOur prob 64%Best odds 1.42 | -21% | 48% | 69% | A | 1.42 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Bundesliga table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 14 | |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 | |
| 3 |  Freiburg |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Mainz 05 |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 | |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 | |
| 7 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig |
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen |
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Hamburger SV |
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Augsburg |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 | |
| 12 |  FC Cologne |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart |
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Hoffenheim |
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 | |
| 15 |  FC Schalke 04 |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | |
| 16 |  SC Paderborn 07 |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | |
| 17 |  Union Berlin |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 5 | |
| 18 |  Borussia M.Gladbach |
6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 0 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Bundesliga trends
How Bundesliga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 54 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (306 played matches).
Top Bundesliga teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.69
- Attack
- 3.10
- Defence
- 1.41
- Net rating
- +1.12
- Attack
- 2.38
- Defence
- 1.27
- Net rating
- +0.89
- Attack
- 2.50
- Defence
- 1.61
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Bundesliga
From the Bundesliga scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
P. SchickBayer Leverkusen
6 G 2 A
-
N. FüllkrugWerder Bremen
6 G 0 A
-
M. OliseBayern Munich
5 G 2 A
-
Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt
5 G 1 A
-
P. TietzMainz 05
5 G 0 A
-
H. KaneBayern Munich
4 G 5 A
- L. DíazBayern Munich 4 G 1 A
-
C. NkunkuRasenBallsport Leipzig
4 G 1 A
Recent Bundesliga results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia M.Gladbach vs HoffenheimOur pick Hoffenheim · 44% | Hoffenheim to win | 44% | 1–2 | Correct | |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs FreiburgOur pick Bayer Leverkusen · 54% | Bayer Leverkusen to win | 54% | 2–1 | Correct | |
| Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport LeipzigOur pick Bayern Munich · 75% | Bayern Munich to win | 75% | 6–1 | Correct | |
| SV Elversberg vs AugsburgOur pick SV Elversberg · 43% | SV Elversberg to win | 43% | 4–3 | Correct | |
| Union Berlin vs Borussia DortmundOur pick Borussia Dortmund · 61% | Borussia Dortmund to win | 61% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| Hamburger SV vs VfB StuttgartOur pick VfB Stuttgart · 53% | VfB Stuttgart to win | 53% | 1–0 | Missed |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.