Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 preview
Lazio has a 63% probability of winning against Parma Calcio 1913, who sit at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Lazio's expected goals are 1.95, while Parma's are significantly lower at 1.02. Both teams are projected to score, with a 57% likelihood for over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Lazio with four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Parma has one win, two draws, and three losses. In their last four head-to-head encounters, Lazio has won once, while Parma has also secured one victory, with two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade is A, but the disparity in expected goals raises questions about Parma's scoring ability.
Why this pick: Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lazio 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market
| Source | Lazio | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Published | 64% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | -9% | +4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.56 | 1.44 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 4.43 | +0.49 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 6.17 | 7.45 | +1.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Lazio / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.06 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Lazio / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.10 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 14% | 7.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lazio or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913) | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
Lazio
5W 1D 0L
Parma Calcio 1913
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lazio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Parma Calcio 1913 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lazio at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lazio 1 · draws 2 · Parma Calcio 1913 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Lazio | 1-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-12-13 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2025-04-28 | Lazio | 2-2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2024-12-01 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 3-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
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Before and after this match
- Lazio, previous: Juventus v Lazio analysis
- Lazio, next: Sassuolo vs Lazio: odds and pick
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino prediction