SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV preview
SC Paderborn 07 has a 42% probability of winning, while Hamburger SV stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. SC Paderborn 07 has an expected goals figure of 2.06 compared to Hamburger SV's 1.33.
Both teams to score has a 64% probability, and over 2.5 goals sits at 62%. Recent form shows SC Paderborn 07 with a record of D-L-W-L-L-D, while Hamburger SV has W-W-W-L-L-L. The confidence grade for this matchup is B, but the lack of a clear recent trend raises questions about the reliability of these predictions.
Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 6, Hamburger SV 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: model vs market
| Source | SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | +7% | +1% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.33.
- The market prices SC Paderborn 07 below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SC Paderborn 07, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 2.27 | 2.32 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.67 | -0.23 |
| Hamburger SV | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Hamburger SV)
- 0.93 / 0.88
- Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Hamburger SV)
- 1.04 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Hamburger SV | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamburger SV) | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Paderborn 07 win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV recent form
SC Paderborn 07
1W 2D 3L
Hamburger SV
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Paderborn 07 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Hamburger SV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, Hamburger SV away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: odds and pick
- Hamburger SV, previous: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction