Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 6

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

· Volksparkstadion, Hamburger· Referee Robert Hartmann

Full time1 – 0

BCCFC prediction was VfB Stuttgart to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hamburger SVDrawVfB Stuttgart

Why this pick: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hamburger SV 10, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
1.21 xG per 90 2.21
1.14 npxG per 90 2.12
17.9 PPDA 11.2
5.0 Deep completions per 90 8.0
1.03 xPTS per 90 1.19

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHamburger SVDrawVfB Stuttgart
Model27%24%49%
Market23%23%54%
Published24%23%53%
Edge+4%+1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement

Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 53 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 1.70Now 1.77 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hamburger SV4.204.08-0.12
Draw4.204.16-0.04
VfB Stuttgart1.701.77+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Hamburger SV
2.16VfB Stuttgart
Total expected goals
3.94
Attack rating (Hamburger SV / VfB Stuttgart)
0.85 / 1.29
Defence rating (Hamburger SV / VfB Stuttgart)
1.15 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 3.4% 5.4% 3.9% 3.5% 1 2.1% 9.7% 8.7% 6.2% 5.6% 2 3.0% 6.4% 7.0% 5.0% 4.5% 3 1.6% 3.4% 3.7% 2.7% 2.4% 4+ 0.9% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4%

Rows: Hamburger SV goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hamburger SV24%4.12
Draw23%4.32
VfB Stuttgart53%1.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.63
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.38
No28%3.60
Double chance1X (Hamburger SV or draw)47%2.11
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart)76%1.32
Handicap -1VfB Stuttgart win by 2+30%3.32
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart recent form

Hamburger SV 3W 0D 3L
VfB Stuttgart 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hamburger SV at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

VfB Stuttgart away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hamburger SV at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.

Injuries & availability

Hamburger SV absences

  • A. S. Lokonga lacking match fitness
  • B. Jatta groin injury
  • M. Vuskovic doping
  • N. Remberg knee injury
  • P. Daka thigh injury

VfB Stuttgart absences

  • A. Al Dakhil knee injury
  • D. Zagadou muscle injury
  • J. Diehl muscle injury
  • M. Mittelstadt heel injury
  • N. Nartey muscle injury
  • T. Tomas muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Hamburger SV lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes
  2. 17 W. Omari
  3. 33 S. Bornauw
  4. 24 N. Capaldo
  5. 37 L. Lemke
  6. 28 M. Muheim
  7. 4 B. Nadir
  8. 5 M. Adeline
  9. 3 D. Møller Wolfe
  10. 20 Fábio Vieira
  11. 15 Y. Poulsen

Bench: Z. El Ouahdi, T. Moffi, A. Grønbæk, S. Tangvik, Otto Emerson Stange, Kofi Jeremy Amoako, J. Torunarigha, Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit, S. Nandja

VfB Stuttgart lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 41 D. Seimen
  2. 3 R. Hendriks
  3. 24 J. Chabot
  4. 29 Finn Jeltsch
  5. 4 J. Vagnoman
  6. 6 A. Stiller
  7. 16 A. Karazor
  8. 11 B. El Khannouss
  9. 26 D. Undav
  10. 18 J. Leweling
  11. 9 E. Demirović

Bench: F. Bredlow, C. Führich, L. Jaquez, D. Pejčinović, L. Stergiou, G. Prömel, L. Assignon, L. Sauer, Y. Spalt

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 3 · draws 1 · VfB Stuttgart 6.

Hamburger SVDrawsVfB Stuttgart
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12VfB Stuttgart4-0Hamburger SVBundesliga
2025-11-30Hamburger SV2-1VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2023-06-05Hamburger SV1-3VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2023-06-01VfB Stuttgart3-0Hamburger SVBundesliga
2020-08-26VfB Stuttgart3-2Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
2020-05-28VfB Stuttgart3-2Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
2019-10-29Hamburger SV1-2VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
2019-10-26Hamburger SV6-2VfB Stuttgart2. Bundesliga
2018-03-31VfB Stuttgart1-1Hamburger SVBundesliga
2017-11-04Hamburger SV3-1VfB StuttgartBundesliga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match