Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim preview
Borussia M.Gladbach has a 31% probability of winning, while Hoffenheim stands at 46%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Despite Borussia M.Gladbach's expected goals of 1.99 compared to Hoffenheim's 1.84, this does not guarantee a victory for the home side.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Borussia M.Gladbach recording five consecutive losses before a win, while Hoffenheim has lost four of their last six matches. The model indicates a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance for both teams to score. The head-to-head record shows Borussia M.Gladbach with 3 wins and Hoffenheim with 2 in their last 6 encounters, but recent form raises questions about the reliability of these statistics.
Why this pick: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia M.Gladbach 10, Hoffenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim: model vs market
| Source | Borussia M.Gladbach | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 46% |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | +7% | +1% | -8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 3.30 | 3.11 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 4.07 | 4.04 | -0.03 |
| Hoffenheim | 1.93 | 2.07 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.00
- Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Hoffenheim)
- 1.05 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Hoffenheim)
- 1.20 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: Hoffenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Hoffenheim | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Hoffenheim) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 21% | 4.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim recent form
Borussia M.Gladbach
1W 0D 5L
Hoffenheim
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia M.Gladbach at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hoffenheim away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia M.Gladbach at home only, Hoffenheim away only.
Injuries & availability
Borussia M.Gladbach absences
-
E. Leopold
knee injury
- F. Fleck muscle injury
-
F. Honorat
muscle injury
-
J. Castrop
shoulder injury
- J. Leszczynski knee injury
- K. Itakura ankle injury
-
N. Kuhn
muscle injury
-
T. Kleindienst
muscle injury
Hoffenheim absences
- A. Hajdari foot injury
-
Bernardo
suspended
- P. Wimmer thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Borussia M.Gladbach 6 · draws 2 · Hoffenheim 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 4-0 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-14 | Hoffenheim | 5-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-03 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 4-4 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-21 | Hoffenheim | 1-2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-20 | Hoffenheim | 4-3 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-02 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 2-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-28 | Hoffenheim | 1-4 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2022-08-06 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2022-05-14 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 5-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2021-12-18 | Hoffenheim | 1-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne 2026-10-16
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-10-17
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-17
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund 2026-10-17
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page 2026-10-17
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: FC Cologne – Borussia M.Gladbach, 2026-10-11
- Borussia M.Gladbach, next: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach prediction
- Hoffenheim, previous: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction