Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 6

Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

· Allianz Arena, Munich· Referee Tobias Stieler

Full time6 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Bayern Munich to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bayern MunichDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig

Why this pick: Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayern Munich 10, RasenBallsport Leipzig 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Bayern MunichRasenBallsport Leipzig
3.23 xG per 90 2.35
3.02 npxG per 90 2.35
7.8 PPDA 11.2
19.9 Deep completions per 90 10.1
2.40 xPTS per 90 1.71

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBayern MunichDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig
Model61%19%19%
Market79%12%9%
Published75%14%11%
Edge-18%+7%+11%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.14 vs 1.63.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 1.18Now 1.21 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bayern Munich1.181.21+0.03
Draw7.008.21+1.21
RasenBallsport Leipzig11.0011.05+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bayern Munich and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.14Bayern Munich
1.63RasenBallsport Leipzig
Total expected goals
4.77
Attack rating (Bayern Munich / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
1.76 / 1.36
Defence rating (Bayern Munich / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
0.83 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1 2.2% 6.4% 4.4% 2.4% 1.4% 2 4.6% 7.6% 6.2% 3.4% 2.0% 3 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 3.2% 1.9% 4+ 6.1% 10.0% 8.2% 4.4% 2.6%

Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bayern Munich75%1.33
Draw14%7.35
RasenBallsport Leipzig11%8.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582%1.22
Under 2.518%5.59
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.29
Double chance1X (Bayern Munich or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)86%1.16
X2 (draw or RasenBallsport Leipzig)25%4.00
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win by 2+43%2.32
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bayern Munich and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form

Bayern Munich 3W 3D 0L
RasenBallsport Leipzig 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bayern Munich at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
6.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.

RasenBallsport Leipzig away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bayern Munich at home only, RasenBallsport Leipzig away only.

Injuries & availability

Bayern Munich absences

  • J. Musiala muscle injury
  • M. Neuer foot injury
  • T. Buchmann knee injury

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • A. Ouedraogo shoulder injury
  • C. Baumgartner thigh injury
  • M. Guiu hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bayern Munich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 J. Urbig
  2. 11 N. Brown
  3. 3 Kim Min-Jae
  4. 2 D. Upamecano
  5. 27 K. Laimer
  6. 45 A. Pavlović
  7. 6 J. Kimmich
  8. 14 L. Díaz
  9. 34 I. Saibari
  10. 17 M. Olise
  11. 9 H. Kane

Bench: J. Tah, S. Gnabry, T. Bischof, A. Davies, H. Ito, S. Boey, S. Ulreich, L. Karl, J. Stanišić

RasenBallsport Leipzig lineup · 4-5-1

  1. 26 M. Vandevoordt
  2. 22 D. Raum
  3. 23 C. Lukeba
  4. 4 W. Orbán
  5. 16 L. Klostermann
  6. 7 A. Nusa
  7. 6 E. Banzuzi
  8. 21 N. El Aynaoui
  9. 20 R. Reitz
  10. 10 B. Gruda
  11. 28 C. Nkunku

Bench: Ø. Nyland, M. Estève, N. Seiwald, R. Baku, T. Gomis, A. Maksimović, Max Finkgräfe, B. Henrichs, Rômulo

Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bayern Munich 6 · draws 2 · RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.

Bayern MunichDrawsRasenBallsport Leipzig
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-15Bayern Munich3-1RasenBallsport LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
2026-02-11Bayern Munich2-0RasenBallsport LeipzigDFB Pokal
2026-01-17RasenBallsport Leipzig1-5Bayern MunichBundesliga
2025-08-22Bayern Munich6-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2025-05-03RasenBallsport Leipzig3-3Bayern MunichBundesliga
2024-12-20Bayern Munich5-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2024-02-24Bayern Munich2-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2023-09-30RasenBallsport Leipzig2-2Bayern MunichBundesliga
2023-08-12Bayern Munich0-3RasenBallsport LeipzigSuper Cup
2023-05-20Bayern Munich1-3RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match