Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 6

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

· An der Alten Försterei, Berlin· Referee Daniel Schlager

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Borussia Dortmund to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Union BerlinDrawBorussia Dortmund

Why this pick: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Union Berlin 10, Borussia Dortmund 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
1.52 xG per 90 2.51
1.52 npxG per 90 2.51
15.3 PPDA 12.2
5.8 Deep completions per 90 9.3
1.25 xPTS per 90 2.31

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnion BerlinDrawBorussia Dortmund
Model16%22%62%
Market18%22%60%
Published18%22%61%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 53 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 1.44Now 1.59 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Union Berlin6.005.29-0.71
Draw4.754.45-0.30
Borussia Dortmund1.441.59+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Union Berlin
2.31Borussia Dortmund
Total expected goals
3.60
Attack rating (Union Berlin / Borussia Dortmund)
0.96 / 1.24
Defence rating (Union Berlin / Borussia Dortmund)
1.28 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 5.5% 8.3% 6.4% 6.4% 1 1.9% 10.0% 9.6% 7.4% 7.4% 2 2.1% 4.8% 5.6% 4.3% 4.3% 3 0.8% 1.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 4+ 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6%

Rows: Union Berlin goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Union Berlin18%5.67
Draw22%4.60
Borussia Dortmund61%1.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.07
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.74
Double chance1X (Union Berlin or draw)39%2.54
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund)82%1.21
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win by 2+41%2.44
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund recent form

Union Berlin 2W 1D 3L
Borussia Dortmund 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Union Berlin at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Borussia Dortmund away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Union Berlin at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.

Injuries & availability

Union Berlin absences

  • A. Ilic illness
  • A. Markgraf knee injury
  • E. Latte Lath muscle injury
  • J. Juranovic achilles tendon injury
  • S. Nsoki muscle injury

Borussia Dortmund absences

  • E. Can knee injury
  • G. Konstantelias knee injury
  • J. Lerma muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Union Berlin lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 F. Rønnow
  2. 15 T. Rothe
  3. 2 F. Uduokhai
  4. 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
  5. 19 J. Haberer
  6. 30 K. Imeri
  7. 8 R. Khedira
  8. 13 A. Schäfer
  9. 20 M. Aebischer
  10. 21 T. Skarke
  11. 11 Jeong Woo-Yeong

Bench: A. Kemlein, L. Querfeld, D. Köhn, M. Ljubičić, C. Trimmel, E. Latte Lath, M. Raab, M. Gray, Linus Guther

Borussia Dortmund lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Kobel
  2. 4 N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 3 W. Anton
  4. 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou
  5. 24 D. Svensson
  6. 8 F. Nmecha
  7. 7 J. Bellingham
  8. 26 J. Ryerson
  9. 14 M. Beier
  10. 18 E. Nwaneri
  11. 9 S. Guirassy

Bench: R. Bensebaïni, C. Chukwuemeka, K. Karetsas, M. Sabitzer, Fábio Silva, J. Veerman, A. Meyer, Kauã Prates, M. Albert

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Union Berlin 2 · draws 0 · Borussia Dortmund 8.

Union BerlinDrawsBorussia Dortmund
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Union Berlin0-3Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2025-08-31Borussia Dortmund3-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2025-02-22Borussia Dortmund6-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2024-10-05Union Berlin2-1Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2024-03-02Union Berlin0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2023-10-07Borussia Dortmund4-2Union BerlinBundesliga
2023-04-08Borussia Dortmund2-1Union BerlinBundesliga
2022-10-16Union Berlin2-0Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2022-02-13Union Berlin0-3Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2021-09-19Borussia Dortmund4-2Union BerlinBundesliga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match