Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg preview
Bayer Leverkusen has a 52% probability of winning, while Freiburg sits at 25%. The expected goals suggest a scoreline of 2.23 for Leverkusen and 1.68 for Freiburg. This indicates Leverkusen's attacking strength, but it does not prove they will secure all three points.
Both teams to score stands at 72%, and the model predicts a 2-1 scoreline with an 8% likelihood. Leverkusen's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws in the last 6 matches, contrasting with Freiburg's 5 wins and 1 draw. The confidence grade is B, highlighting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Why this pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayer Leverkusen 10, Freiburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg: model vs market
| Source | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | -12% | +3% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.69.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | +0.20 |
| Freiburg | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Bayer Leverkusen / Freiburg)
- 1.47 / 1.53
- Defence rating (Bayer Leverkusen / Freiburg)
- 0.76 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: Freiburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Freiburg | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bayer Leverkusen or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Freiburg) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
5W 1D 0L
Freiburg
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bayer Leverkusen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
Freiburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen at home only, Freiburg away only.
Injuries & availability
Bayer Leverkusen absences
-
C. Kofane
muscle injury
-
E. Ben Seghir
muscle injury
-
G. Doue
calf injury
-
K. Eichhorn
illness
-
M. Culbreath
foot injury
-
M. Terrier
muscle injury
Freiburg absences
- B. Yilmaz lacking match fitness
-
Y. Suzuki
suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5 · draws 3 · Freiburg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Freiburg | 3-3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-26 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-04 | Freiburg | 2-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-21 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-17 | Freiburg | 2-3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-29 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-26 | Freiburg | 1-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2022-09-03 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-3 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-05-14 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2021-12-19 | Freiburg | 2-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne 2026-10-16
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-10-17
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-17
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund 2026-10-17
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page 2026-10-17
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Bayer Leverkusen, previous: Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen analysis
- Freiburg, previous: Freiburg – FC Schalke 04, 2026-10-11