Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 6

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg

· Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg· Referee Florian Exner

Full time4 – 3

BCCFC prediction was SV Elversberg to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SV ElversbergDrawAugsburg

Why this pick: SV Elversberg vs Augsburg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SV Elversberg 5, Augsburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SV ElversbergAugsburg
1.31 xG per 90 2.05
1.31 npxG per 90 1.97
13.2 PPDA 24.3
5.6 Deep completions per 90 6.2
0.78 xPTS per 90 1.29

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSV ElversbergDrawAugsburg
Model55%23%23%
Market39%26%36%
Published43%25%33%
Edge+16%-3%-13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.49.
  • The market prices SV Elversberg below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SV Elversberg, 53 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 2.75Now 2.48 -0.27
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SV Elversberg2.752.48-0.27
Draw3.703.74+0.04
Augsburg2.302.67+0.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SV Elversberg and Augsburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.59SV Elversberg
1.49Augsburg
Total expected goals
4.08
Attack rating (SV Elversberg / Augsburg)
1.12 / 1.14
Defence rating (SV Elversberg / Augsburg)
0.90 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 1.7% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 1 3.6% 9.1% 5.7% 2.8% 1.5% 2 5.9% 8.9% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.6% 6.9% 5.1% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 4.6% 6.9% 5.2% 2.6% 1.3%

Rows: SV Elversberg goals. Columns: Augsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SV Elversberg vs Augsburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SV Elversberg43%2.35
Draw25%4.02
Augsburg33%3.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.36
Under 2.527%3.77
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.40
No28%3.51
Double chance1X (SV Elversberg or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Augsburg)57%1.74
Handicap -1SV Elversberg win by 2+35%2.82
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SV Elversberg and Augsburg recent form

SV Elversberg 3W 1D 2L
Augsburg 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SV Elversberg at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Augsburg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: SV Elversberg at home only, Augsburg away only.

Injuries & availability

SV Elversberg absences

  • C. Campbell ankle injury
  • F. Onyeka foot injury
  • J. Gyamerah groin injury
  • L. Seifert ankle injury

Augsburg absences

  • A. Claude-Maurice muscle injury
  • N. Banks knee injury
  • S. Mounie injury
  • S. Suso inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

SV Elversberg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 20 N. Kristof
  2. 21 L. Günther
  3. 31 M. Rohr
  4. 19 L. Pinckert
  5. 30 J. Gyamerah
  6. 8 Ł. Poręba
  7. 43 F. Keidel
  8. 7 M. Krattenmacher
  9. 10 Noah Darvich
  10. 25 L. Petkov
  11. 42 D. Mokwa

Bench: N. Mickelson, F. Le Joncour, A. Condé, N. Futkeu, R. Adam, F. Schmahl, L. Schnellbacher, L. Sirch, T. Boss

Augsburg lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 F. Dahmen
  2. 2 C. Brackelmann
  3. 5 C. Matsima
  4. 35 Abdulay Bah
  5. 16 Hennes Behrens
  6. 32 F. Rieder
  7. 4 H. Massengo
  8. 27 M. Wolf
  9. 21 A. Ibrahimović
  10. 19 R. Fellhauer
  11. 9 Rodrigo Ribeiro

Bench: J. Gouweleeuw, Seol Young-Woo, M. Kömür, M. Gregoritsch, Y. Keitel, N. Labrović, A. Kade, T. Schnitzer, U. Ogundu

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: SV Elversberg 0 · draws 0 · Augsburg 1.

SV ElversbergDrawsAugsburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2015-08-07SV Elversberg1-3AugsburgDFB Pokal

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match