Brighton vs Crystal Palace preview
Brighton has a 64% probability of winning against Crystal Palace, who have a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline is 3-1 in favour of Brighton, with an expected goals tally of 3.13 for Brighton and 1.45 for Crystal Palace. Brighton's recent form shows 5 wins and a draw, while Crystal Palace has 3 wins, 2 losses, and a draw in their last 6 matches.
Brighton also has an 85% probability of over 2.5 goals, while both teams to score stands at 74%. Despite Brighton's stronger recent performance and higher expected goals, the head-to-head record shows Crystal Palace has 3 wins in the last 6 encounters. This discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of the recent form.
Why this pick: Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brighton 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace: model vs market
| Source | Brighton | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Edge | +10% | -6% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Brighton below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.57 | 1.51 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.55 | +0.35 |
| Crystal Palace | 5.00 | 5.75 | +0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brighton and Crystal Palace expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.58
- Attack rating (Brighton / Crystal Palace)
- 1.59 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Brighton / Crystal Palace)
- 0.89 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brighton vs Crystal Palace
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Crystal Palace | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brighton or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Crystal Palace) | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win by 2+ | 55% | 1.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brighton and Crystal Palace recent form
Brighton
5W 1D 0L
Crystal Palace
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brighton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crystal Palace away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brighton at home only, Crystal Palace away only.
Injuries & availability
Brighton absences
-
E. Ferguson
ankle injury
-
F. Azeez
abdominal strain
- I. Osman injury
-
K. Mitoma
hamstring injury
-
M. Wieffer
knee injury
- P. Struijk rest
-
S. Tzimas
knee injury
-
Y. Minteh
injury
-
Z. Yohanna
injury
Crystal Palace absences
-
A. Disasi
suspended
-
B. Chilwell
injury
-
C. Riad
knee injury
-
D. Henderson
foot injury
-
J. Mateta
hamstring injury
- T. Tomiyasu calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Brighton 2 · draws 5 · Crystal Palace 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Brighton | 0-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2025-04-05 | Crystal Palace | 2-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-12-15 | Brighton | 1-3 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2024-02-03 | Brighton | 4-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-12-21 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2023-03-15 | Brighton | 1-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-02-11 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2022-01-14 | Brighton | 1-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2021-09-27 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Everton vs Chelsea 2026-10-17
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Brighton, previous: Sunderland vs Brighton: odds and pick
- Crystal Palace, previous: Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest, 2026-10-11