Bournemouth vs Sunderland preview
Bournemouth has a 49% probability of winning, while Sunderland sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to the model. Bournemouth's expected goals are 1.98 compared to Sunderland's 1.27. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Bournemouth recording L-L-W-D-W-D and Sunderland L-L-W-L-W-D.
The head-to-head record shows Bournemouth with 0 wins and Sunderland with 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams raises questions about the reliability of these predictions.
Why this pick: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bournemouth 10, Sunderland 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: model vs market
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | +14% | -5% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.14.
- The market prices Bournemouth below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 56 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.75 | 2.10 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.46 | -0.42 |
| Sunderland | 4.50 | 3.52 | -0.98 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bournemouth and Sunderland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Bournemouth / Sunderland)
- 1.36 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Bournemouth / Sunderland)
- 0.81 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bournemouth vs Sunderland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Sunderland | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.63 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bournemouth or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sunderland) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win by 2+ | 38% | 2.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bournemouth and Sunderland recent form
Bournemouth
3W 1D 2L
Sunderland
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bournemouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sunderland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bournemouth at home only, Sunderland away only.
Injuries & availability
Bournemouth absences
- A. Scott thigh injury
-
E. J. Kroupi
foot injury
-
J. Araujo
thigh injury
-
V. Milosavljevic
injury
Sunderland absences
- D. Ballard muscle injury
-
R. Mundle
knee injury
- T. Meunier muscle injury
- W. Isidor injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bournemouth 2 · draws 2 · Sunderland 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 2025-11-29 | Sunderland | 3-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2017-04-29 | Sunderland | 0-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2016-11-05 | Bournemouth | 1-2 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 2016-01-23 | Sunderland | 1-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2015-09-19 | Bournemouth | 2-0 | Sunderland | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Everton vs Chelsea 2026-10-17
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Bournemouth, previous: Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction
- Sunderland, previous: Sunderland vs Brighton: odds and pick