Tottenham vs Coventry preview
Tottenham has a 59% probability of winning against Coventry, who sit at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to the model. Tottenham's expected goals are 1.88, while Coventry's are 1.53. This suggests Tottenham may have the edge in attacking potential, but it does not guarantee a win.
Coventry's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses, while Tottenham has drawn 3 and lost 3 in their last 6 matches. Both teams have a 69% probability of scoring, and there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals. The confidence grade is B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. The source of doubt lies in the contrasting recent performances of the two teams.
Why this pick: Tottenham vs Coventry
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Tottenham 10, Coventry 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Tottenham vs Coventry: model vs market
| Source | Tottenham | Draw | Coventry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | -17% | +3% | +14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.53.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tottenham vs Coventry odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tottenham, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.39 | 1.50 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.55 | +0.35 |
| Coventry | 4.90 | 6.35 | +1.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tottenham and Coventry expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Tottenham / Coventry)
- 1.12 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Tottenham / Coventry)
- 1.06 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tottenham vs Coventry score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tottenham goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tottenham vs Coventry goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tottenham vs Coventry
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Coventry | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tottenham or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Coventry) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tottenham win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tottenham and Coventry recent form
Tottenham
0W 3D 3L
Coventry
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tottenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Coventry away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tottenham at home only, Coventry away only.
Injuries & availability
Tottenham absences
-
D. Kulusevski
knee injury
-
M. Mudryk
ankle injury
- P. Porro muscle injury
- R. Bentancur suspended
-
W. Odobert
knee injury
-
X. Simons
knee injury
Coventry absences
-
A. Amenda
calf injury
-
H. Wright
muscle injury
-
J. Eccles
injury
-
K. Kesler-Hayden
muscle injury
-
L. Woolfenden
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Tottenham, previous: Manchester United vs Tottenham prediction
- Coventry, previous: Coventry vs Newcastle United prediction
- Coventry, next: Coventry vs Fulham: odds and pick