Updated

Premier League · Matchday 7

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

· St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne· Referee Jarred Gillett

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Aston Villa to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa

Why this pick: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Newcastle United 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Newcastle UnitedAston Villa
1.31 xG per 90 1.32
1.23 npxG per 90 1.32
10.4 PPDA 17.9
7.9 Deep completions per 90 6.1
1.13 xPTS per 90 1.13

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNewcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
Model29%23%48%
Market40%26%34%
Published37%25%37%
Edge-11%-3%+14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.60.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Aston Villa below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 56 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 3.20Now 2.83 -0.37
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Newcastle United2.102.39+0.29
Draw3.823.69-0.13
Aston Villa3.202.83-0.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Newcastle United and Aston Villa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Newcastle United
2.17Aston Villa
Total expected goals
3.77
Attack rating (Newcastle United / Aston Villa)
1.05 / 1.56
Defence rating (Newcastle United / Aston Villa)
1.12 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.5% 5.0% 3.6% 3.3% 1 2.4% 8.9% 8.4% 6.1% 5.5% 2 3.0% 6.5% 7.1% 5.1% 4.6% 3 1.7% 3.6% 4.0% 2.9% 2.6% 4+ 1.0% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6%

Rows: Newcastle United goals. Columns: Aston Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Newcastle United37%2.68
Draw25%3.97
Aston Villa37%2.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.84
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.74
Double chance1X (Newcastle United or draw)63%1.60
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Aston Villa)63%1.60
Handicap -1Aston Villa win by 2+29%3.41
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Newcastle United and Aston Villa recent form

Newcastle United 3W 1D 2L
Aston Villa 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Newcastle United at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aston Villa away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Newcastle United at home only, Aston Villa away only.

Injuries & availability

Newcastle United absences

  • A. Elanga knee injury
  • E. Jaouen muscle injury
  • J. Ramsey thigh injury
  • V. Livramento injury

Aston Villa absences

  • A. Onana knee injury
  • G. Hemmings knee injury
  • I. Maatsen ankle injury
  • M. Cisse injury
  • M. Ruggeri injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Newcastle United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 L. Horníček
  2. 3 L. Hall
  3. 4 S. Botman
  4. 12 M. Thiaw
  5. 67 L. Miley
  6. 7 Joelinton
  7. 6 Nico González
  8. 11 H. Barnes
  9. 9 Y. Wissa
  10. 28 J. Willock
  11. 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo

Bench: N. Pope, F. Schär, A. Bamba, W. Osula, Sean Steur, B. Touré, J. Murphy, D. Burn, A. Dedić

Aston Villa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Z. Suzuki
  2. 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
  3. 5 T. Mings
  4. 3 V. Lindelöf
  5. 2 M. Cash
  6. 35 João Gomes
  7. 8 B. Kamara
  8. 44 J. Manzambi
  9. 10 E. Buendía
  10. 47 Alysson Edward
  11. 11 N. Jackson

Bench: T. Harwood-Bellis, R. Barkley, J. McGinn, Pau Torres, I. Mbaye, L. Bogarde, L. Goretzka, Brian Madjo, M. Bizot

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Newcastle United 5 · draws 2 · Aston Villa 3.

Newcastle UnitedDrawsAston Villa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Aston Villa1-3Newcastle UnitedEngland FA Cup
2026-01-25Newcastle United0-2Aston VillaPremier League
2025-08-16Aston Villa0-0Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2025-04-19Aston Villa4-1Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2024-12-26Newcastle United3-0Aston VillaPremier League
2024-01-30Aston Villa1-3Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2023-08-12Newcastle United5-1Aston VillaPremier League
2023-07-23Newcastle United3-3Aston VillaPremier League - Summer Series
2023-04-15Aston Villa3-0Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2022-10-29Newcastle United4-0Aston VillaPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match