Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal preview
Nottingham Forest has a 20% chance of winning, while Arsenal stands at 56%. The expected goals for Nottingham Forest is 1.56 compared to Arsenal's 1.89. This suggests a potential scoreline of 1-2, which is the most likely outcome at 9%.
Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 70% probability for both teams to find the net. Nottingham Forest's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Arsenal has secured 5 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record highlights Nottingham Forest's struggles, with 0 wins and 4 losses against Arsenal in their last 6 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of recent success for Nottingham Forest raises questions.
Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: model vs market
| Source | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Published | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Edge | +11% | -1% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 5.30 | 5.72 | +0.42 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.82 | -0.03 |
| Arsenal | 1.58 | 1.63 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Arsenal)
- 1.21 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Arsenal)
- 1.11 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 19% | 5.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Arsenal | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nottingham Forest or draw) | 44% | 2.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 28% | 3.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal recent form
Nottingham Forest
1W 2D 3L
Arsenal
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nottingham Forest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Arsenal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nottingham Forest at home only, Arsenal away only.
Injuries & availability
Nottingham Forest absences
- Igor Jesus calf injury
-
N. Milenkovic
knee injury
-
N. Savona
knee injury
Arsenal absences
- C. Tzolis hamstring injury
- M. Zubimendi knock
- P. Hincapie ankle injury
-
W. Saliba
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nottingham Forest 2 · draws 2 · Arsenal 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | Arsenal | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-02-26 | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-11-23 | Arsenal | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-01-30 | Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-08-12 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2023-05-20 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-10-30 | Arsenal | 5-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2022-01-09 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Arsenal | FA Cup |
| 2019-09-24 | Arsenal | 5-0 | Nottingham Forest | League Cup |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Tottenham vs Coventry 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Nottingham Forest, previous: Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest, 2026-10-11
- Nottingham Forest, next: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: odds and pick
- Arsenal, previous: Arsenal vs Leeds: odds and pick
- Arsenal, next: Arsenal v Everton analysis