Venezia VS Fiorentina Football Prediction 11/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Venezia vs Fiorentina

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Venezia 10, Fiorentina 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VeneziaFiorentina

1.53 xG per 90 0.98

1.53 npxG per 90 0.98

9.0 PPDA 15.0

5.4 Deep completions per 90 6.0

1.18 xPTS per 90 1.00

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Venezia vs Fiorentina: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Venezia	Draw	Fiorentina
Model	49%	26%	26%
Market	34%	28%	38%
Published	38%	28%	35%
Edge	+15%	-3%	-12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.41.
The market prices Venezia below the model: +14.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Venezia vs Fiorentina odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Venezia, 25 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.60Now 2.84 +0.24

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Venezia	2.60	2.84	+0.24
Draw	3.20	3.40	+0.20
Fiorentina	2.35	2.54	+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Venezia and Fiorentina expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Venezia

1.41Fiorentina

Total expected goals: 3.37
Attack rating (Venezia / Fiorentina): 1.21 / 1.05
Defence rating (Venezia / Fiorentina): 1.14 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Venezia vs Fiorentina score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.8% 1 4.8% 11.4% 6.7% 3.1% 1.5% 2 6.6% 9.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.3% 6.1% 4.3% 2.0% 1.0% 4+ 3.3% 4.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.7%

Rows: Venezia goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Venezia vs Fiorentina goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Venezia vs Fiorentina

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Venezia	38%	2.66
	Draw	28%	3.62
	Fiorentina	35%	2.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.53
	Under 2.5	35%	2.90
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	3.01
Double chance	1X (Venezia or draw)	65%	1.53
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Fiorentina)	62%	1.60
Handicap -1	Venezia win by 2+	29%	3.44
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Venezia and Fiorentina recent form

Venezia 2W 0D 4L

Fiorentina 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Venezia at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Fiorentina away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 4.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Venezia at home only, Fiorentina away only.

Injuries & availability

Venezia absences

A. Adorante hernia
A. Bella-Kotchap injury
B. Franjic injury
M. Dagasso inactive
M. Sverko hip injury
T. Basic foot injury

Fiorentina absences

F. Parisi knee injury
R. Sottil back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Venezia lineup · 3-5-2

1 Filip Stanković
5 Ridgeciano Haps
2 Matias Moreno
3 Joel Schingtienne
20 Richie Sagrado
19 Simon Sohm
6 Gianluca Busio
71 Kike Pérez
18 Antoine Hainaut
45 Akor Adams
10 John Yeboah

Bench: Albion Rrahmani, Lamine Fanne, Thierry Correia, Juan Jesus, Rufai Mohammed, Þórir Jóhann Helgason, Redouane Halhal, Lion Lauberbach, Lorenzo Berardi, Simone Panada, Kornel Lisman, Pasquale Mazzocchi, Toni Fernández, Ale Gomes, Lorenzo Montipò

Fiorentina lineup · 4-3-3

43 David De Gea
6 Luca Ranieri
33 Viery
3 Radu Drăguşin
20 Álex Jiménez
14 Arthur Atta
27 Cher Ndour
44 Nicolò Fagioli
25 Alieu Njie
23 Beto
30 Franco Mastantuono

Bench: Dodô, Marco Brescianini, Marin Pongračić, João Mário, Luca Lezzerini, Víctor Valdepeñas, Pedro Gonçalves, Wilfried Gnonto, Mateo Pellegrino, Christ Inao Oulaï, Oliver Christensen

Venezia vs Fiorentina head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Venezia 2 · draws 1 · Fiorentina 1.

50% 25% 25%

VeneziaDrawsFiorentina

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2025-05-12	Venezia	2-1	Fiorentina	Serie A
2024-08-25	Fiorentina	0-0	Venezia	Serie A
2022-04-16	Fiorentina	1-0	Venezia	Serie A
2021-10-18	Venezia	1-0	Fiorentina	Serie A

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Genoa vs Frosinone 2026-09-12
Lazio v AC Milan — match page 2026-09-12
Atalanta vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-09-12
Lecce v Monza — match page 2026-09-13
Napoli vs Bologna 2026-09-13
Sassuolo v Juventus — match page 2026-09-13
Torino vs Roma 2026-09-14
Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-09-14

Before and after this match

Venezia, previous: Frosinone vs Venezia: odds and pick
Venezia, next: Venezia vs Lazio: odds and pick
Fiorentina, previous: Fiorentina vs Torino prediction
Fiorentina, next: Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction