Updated

Serie A · Matchday 4

Napoli vs Bologna

· Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples· Referee Kevin Bonacina, Italy

Full time1 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Napoli to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NapoliDrawBologna

Why this pick: Napoli vs Bologna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

NapoliBologna
1.48 xG per 90 1.47
1.40 npxG per 90 1.39
18.9 PPDA 11.8
9.0 Deep completions per 90 5.1
1.44 xPTS per 90 1.65

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Napoli vs Bologna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNapoliDrawBologna
Model36%29%34%
Market52%26%21%
Published48%27%25%
Edge-16%+3%+13%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Napoli vs Bologna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.47Now 1.83 +0.36
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Napoli1.471.83+0.36
Draw3.703.60-0.10
Bologna4.904.44-0.46

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Napoli and Bologna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Napoli
1.44Bologna
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Napoli / Bologna)
1.05 / 1.18
Defence rating (Napoli / Bologna)
1.03 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Napoli vs Bologna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 5.5% 5.6% 2.7% 1.3% 1 5.7% 13.8% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 2 5.9% 8.5% 6.1% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.9% 4.2% 3.0% 1.5% 0.7% 4+ 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Napoli vs Bologna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Napoli vs Bologna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Napoli48%2.08
Draw27%3.68
Bologna25%4.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Napoli or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Bologna)52%1.93
Handicap -1Napoli win by 2+18%5.41
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Napoli and Bologna recent form

Napoli 3W 0D 3L
Bologna 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Napoli at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Bologna away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Bologna away only.

Injuries & availability

Napoli absences

  • A. Buongiorno knee injury
  • A. Meret muscle injury
  • Alisson Santos muscle injury
  • F. Anguissa muscle injury
  • Giovane groin injury
  • L. Marianucci knee injury
  • S. McTominay heart problems

Bologna absences

  • A. Dovbyk muscle injury
  • N. Zortea hip injury
  • O. El Azzouzi thigh injury
  • R. Orsolini injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Napoli lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 32 Vanja Milinković-Savić
  2. 37 Leonardo Spinazzola
  3. 16 Rafa Marín
  4. 13 Amir Rrahmani
  5. 22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo
  6. 11 Kevin De Bruyne
  7. 68 Stanislav Lobotka
  8. 6 Billy Gilmour
  9. 26 Antonio Vergara
  10. 19 Rasmus Højlund
  11. 21 Matteo Politano

Bench: Costantino Favasuli, Benoît Badiashile, David Neres, Nikita Contini, Mathías Olivera, Lorenzo Lucca, Sam Beukema, Noa Lang

Bologna lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 25 Massimo Pessina
  2. 33 Juan Miranda
  3. 3 Arthur Theate
  4. 14 Torbjørn Heggem
  5. 2 Emil Holm
  6. 8 Mikel Amondarain
  7. 19 Lewis Ferguson
  8. 4 Tommaso Pobega
  9. 28 Nicolò Cambiaghi
  10. 91 Roberto Piccoli
  11. 10 Federico Bernardeschi

Bench: Łukasz Skorupski, Eivind Helland, Nikola Moro, Samuel Mbangula, Nicolò Casale, Marco Libra, Jens Odgaard, Jay Enem, Abdel Rahim, Lorenzo De Silvestri, Martin Vitík, Matteo Franceschelli

Napoli vs Bologna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Napoli 4 · draws 3 · Bologna 3.

NapoliDrawsBologna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-11Napoli2-3BolognaSerie A
2025-12-22Napoli2-0BolognaSuper Cup
2025-11-09Bologna2-0NapoliSerie A
2025-04-07Bologna1-1NapoliSerie A
2024-08-25Napoli3-0BolognaSerie A
2024-05-11Napoli0-2BolognaSerie A
2023-09-24Bologna0-0NapoliSerie A
2023-05-28Bologna2-2NapoliSerie A
2022-10-16Napoli3-2BolognaSerie A
2022-01-17Bologna0-2NapoliSerie A

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match