Why this pick: Venezia vs Lazio
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Venezia 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Venezia vs Lazio: model vs market
| Source | Venezia | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Edge | +12% | 0% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Venezia vs Lazio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 26 snapshots since 2026-09-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 2.42 | 3.55 | +1.13 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.62 | +0.34 |
| Lazio | 2.95 | 2.05 | -0.90 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Venezia and Lazio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Venezia / Lazio)
- 1.22 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Venezia / Lazio)
- 1.35 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venezia vs Lazio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venezia goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venezia vs Lazio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venezia vs Lazio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Lazio | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venezia or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Lazio) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 18% | 5.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Venezia and Lazio recent form
Venezia
1W 0D 5L
Lazio
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venezia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Lazio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Venezia at home only, Lazio away only.
Injuries & availability
Venezia absences
-
A. Adorante
hernia
-
A. Bella-Kotchap
injury
-
B. Franjic
injury
-
G. Busio
injury
-
M. Dagasso
inactive
-
M. Sverko
hip injury
-
R. Haps
inactive
-
T. Basic
foot injury
Lazio absences
-
A. Furlanetto
knee injury
-
F. Dele-Bashiru
muscle injury
-
L. Pellegrini
injury
-
N. Rovella
injury
-
Patric
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Venezia lineup · 3-5-2
- 1 Filip Stanković
- 2 Matias Moreno
- 15 Juan Jesus
- 3 Joel Schingtienne
- 14 Thierry Correia
- 21 Þórir Jóhann Helgason
- 19 Simon Sohm
- 71 Kike Pérez
- 18 Antoine Hainaut
- 45 Akor Adams
- 10 John Yeboah
Bench: Albion Rrahmani, Lamine Fanne, Rufai Mohammed, Richie Sagrado, Redouane Halhal, Lion Lauberbach, Lorenzo Berardi, Simone Panada, Kornel Lisman, Toni Fernández, Ale Gomes, Lorenzo Montipò
Lazio lineup · 4-3-3
- 35 Christos Mandas
- 17 Nuno Tavares
- 25 Oliver Provstgaard
- 37 Josip Šutalo
- 15 Romano Floriani Mussolini
- 24 Kenneth Taylor
- 21 Reda Belahyane
- 16 Davide Frattesi
- 10 Mattia Zaccagni
- 14 Tijjani Noslin
- 22 Matteo Cancellieri
Bench: Diogo Leite, Danilho Doekhi, Andrea Pinamonti, Gustav Isaksen, Alfonso Pedraza, Manuel Lazzari, Danilo Cataldi, Edoardo Motta, Davide Renzetti, Federico Serra, Valerio Farcomeni, Albert Guðmundsson
Venezia vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Venezia 0 · draws 1 · Lazio 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Venezia | 0-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-08-18 | Lazio | 3-1 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2022-03-14 | Lazio | 1-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2021-12-22 | Venezia | 1-3 | Lazio | Serie A |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monza vs Sassuolo 2026-09-18
- Udinese v Cagliari — match page 2026-09-19
- Bologna vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Roma vs Inter 2026-09-19
- Fiorentina vs Napoli — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Frosinone vs Como 2026-09-20
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa — match page 2026-09-20
- Juventus vs Atalanta — team news & stats 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Venezia, previous: Venezia – Fiorentina, 2026-09-11
- Venezia, next: Atalanta v Venezia analysis
- Lazio, previous: Lazio – AC Milan, 2026-09-12
- Lazio, next: Lazio – Monza, 2026-10-11