Why this pick: Torino vs Roma
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Roma: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Market | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| Published | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Torino vs Roma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 31 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 3.95 | 6.00 | +2.05 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 4.33 | +1.13 |
| Roma | 1.68 | 1.53 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Roma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Torino / Roma)
- 0.98 / 1.77
- Defence rating (Torino / Roma)
- 1.11 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Roma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Roma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Roma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 15% | 6.51 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Roma | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 37% | 2.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Roma) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Torino and Roma recent form
Torino
2W 1D 3L
Roma
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Roma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Roma away only.
Injuries & availability
Torino absences
-
C. Adams
muscle injury
-
C. Casadei
rest
-
F. Israel
shoulder injury
-
G. Simeone
back injury
-
P. Pellegri
knee injury
Roma absences
-
M. Bah
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Torino vs Roma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Torino 2 · draws 2 · Roma 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Torino | 0-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2026-01-13 | Roma | 2-3 | Torino | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-09-14 | Roma | 0-1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2025-05-25 | Torino | 0-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-10-31 | Roma | 1-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-02-26 | Roma | 3-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2023-09-24 | Torino | 1-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2023-04-08 | Torino | 0-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2022-11-13 | Roma | 1-1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2022-05-20 | Torino | 0-3 | Roma | Serie A |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Venezia vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Genoa vs Frosinone 2026-09-12
- Lazio v AC Milan — match page 2026-09-12
- Atalanta vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lecce v Monza — match page 2026-09-13
- Napoli vs Bologna 2026-09-13
- Sassuolo v Juventus — match page 2026-09-13
- Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-09-14
Before and after this match
- Torino, previous: Fiorentina vs Torino prediction
- Torino, next: Bologna – Torino, 2026-09-19
- Roma, previous: Roma v Atalanta analysis
- Roma, next: Roma v Inter analysis