Updated

Serie A · Matchday 4

Atalanta vs Cagliari

· New Balance Arena, Bergamo· Referee Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy

Full time1 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Atalanta to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AtalantaDrawCagliari

Why this pick: Atalanta vs Cagliari

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AtalantaCagliari
1.19 xG per 90 1.51
1.19 npxG per 90 1.51
14.6 PPDA 18.9
8.5 Deep completions per 90 4.1
1.05 xPTS per 90 1.37

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atalanta vs Cagliari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtalantaDrawCagliari
Model32%30%38%
Market56%25%19%
Published50%26%24%
Edge-23%+5%+19%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atalanta vs Cagliari odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.38Now 1.70 +0.32
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atalanta1.381.70+0.32
Draw3.953.77-0.18
Cagliari5.705.00-0.70

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atalanta and Cagliari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Atalanta
1.46Cagliari
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (Atalanta / Cagliari)
0.88 / 1.10
Defence rating (Atalanta / Cagliari)
1.13 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atalanta vs Cagliari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 6.4% 6.4% 3.1% 1.6% 1 5.7% 14.2% 8.7% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.5% 8.0% 5.8% 2.8% 1.4% 3 2.5% 3.6% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atalanta vs Cagliari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atalanta vs Cagliari

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atalanta50%2.00
Draw26%3.79
Cagliari24%4.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.14
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Atalanta or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Cagliari)50%2.00
Handicap -1Atalanta win by 2+16%6.41
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atalanta and Cagliari recent form

Atalanta 3W 2D 1L
Cagliari 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atalanta at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Cagliari away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Cagliari away only.

Injuries & availability

Atalanta absences

  • G. Gaetano suspended
  • I. Hien muscle injury
  • K. Sulemana knee injury

Cagliari absences

  • M. Felici knee injury
  • M. Nzola lacking match fitness
  • R. Idrissi knee injury
  • Y. Trepy injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atalanta lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 29 Marco Carnesecchi
  2. 23 Sead Kolašinac
  3. 42 Giorgio Scalvini
  4. 3 Odilon Kossounou
  5. 16 Raoul Bellanova
  6. 13 Éderson
  7. 19 Franck Kessié
  8. 10 Lazar Samardžić
  9. 11 Jonathan Rowe
  10. 9 Gianluca Scamacca
  11. 17 Charles De Ketelaere

Bench: Mario Pašalić, Giacomo Raspadori, Thomas Pompei, Thomas Kristensen, Relja Obrić, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Marco Sportiello, Nicola Zalewski, Davide Zappacosta, Nikola Krstović, Eljif Elmas

Cagliari lineup · 4-3-2-1

  1. 1 Elia Caprile
  2. 33 Adam Obert
  3. 15 Juan Rodríguez
  4. 14 Alessandro Deiola
  5. 2 Zé Pedro
  6. 10 Jacopo Fazzini
  7. 6 Harry Winks
  8. 4 Alessandro Romano
  9. 70 Daniel Maldini
  10. 8 Michel Adopo
  11. 31 Paul Mendy

Bench: Kevin Carlos Omoruyi, Alen Sherri, Riccardo Ciervo, Roberto Gagliardini, Raphael Kofler, Boris Radunović, Giuseppe Aurelio, Yerry Mina, Joseph Liteta, Yukinari Sugawara, Demi Akarakiri, Ivan Sulev, Alessandro Sugamele, Alieu Fadera, Yanis Massolin

Atalanta vs Cagliari head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atalanta 6 · draws 1 · Cagliari 3.

AtalantaDrawsCagliari
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-27Cagliari3-2AtalantaSerie A
2025-12-13Atalanta2-1CagliariSerie A
2025-02-15Atalanta0-0CagliariSerie A
2024-12-14Cagliari0-1AtalantaSerie A
2024-04-07Cagliari2-1AtalantaSerie A
2023-09-24Atalanta2-0CagliariSerie A
2022-02-06Atalanta1-2CagliariSerie A
2021-11-06Cagliari1-2AtalantaSerie A
2021-02-14Cagliari0-1AtalantaSerie A
2021-01-14Atalanta3-1CagliariCoppa Italia

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match