Why this pick: Frosinone vs Venezia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Frosinone vs Venezia: model vs market
| Source | Frosinone | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | +25% | -2% | -23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below the model: +25.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Frosinone vs Venezia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 2.80 | 2.65 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.58 | +0.28 |
| Venezia | 2.60 | 2.59 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Frosinone and Venezia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Frosinone / Venezia)
- 1.62 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Frosinone / Venezia)
- 0.65 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Frosinone vs Venezia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Frosinone vs Venezia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Frosinone vs Venezia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Venezia | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Frosinone or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Venezia) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Frosinone and Venezia recent form
Frosinone
4W 1D 1L
Venezia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Frosinone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Venezia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Venezia away only.
Injuries & availability
Venezia absences
-
A. Adorante
hernia
-
B. Franjic
injury
-
M. Sverko
hip injury
-
T. Basic
foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Frosinone vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Frosinone 5 · draws 2 · Venezia 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Frosinone | 1-2 | Venezia | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-10-04 | Venezia | 3-0 | Frosinone | Italy Serie B |
| 2023-03-05 | Frosinone | 3-0 | Venezia | Serie B |
| 2022-10-14 | Venezia | 1-3 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2021-08-15 | Venezia | 1-1 | Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| 2021-02-06 | Frosinone | 1-2 | Venezia | Serie B |
| 2020-10-03 | Venezia | 0-2 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2020-02-08 | Venezia | 0-1 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2019-09-20 | Frosinone | 1-1 | Venezia | Serie B |
| 2018-03-29 | Frosinone | 2-1 | Venezia | Serie B |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
- Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
- Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
- Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
- Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Frosinone, next: Genoa v Frosinone analysis
- Venezia, next: Venezia – Fiorentina, 2026-09-11