Why this pick: Lecce vs Monza
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lecce 10, Monza 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lecce vs Monza: model vs market
| Source | Lecce | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Published | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Edge | -12% | -8% | +20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.33.
- The market prices Monza below the model: +20.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lecce vs Monza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monza, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.68 | 2.90 | +1.22 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.05 | -0.10 |
| Monza | 4.10 | 2.63 | -1.47 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lecce and Monza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Lecce / Monza)
- 0.95 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Lecce / Monza)
- 1.57 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lecce vs Monza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lecce goals. Columns: Monza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lecce vs Monza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lecce vs Monza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 30% | 3.37 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Monza | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lecce or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Monza) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monza win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lecce and Monza recent form
Lecce
3W 0D 3L
Monza
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lecce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Monza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Lecce at home only, Monza away only.
Injuries & availability
Lecce absences
-
M. Berisha
rest
-
O. Gandelman
inactive
-
W. Geubbels
ankle injury
Monza absences
-
C. Ngonge
lacking match fitness
-
I. Toure
contusion
-
J. Ziolkowski
foot injury
-
M. Pessina
knee injury
-
P. Ciurria
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lecce lineup · 4-3-3
- 30 Wladimiro Falcone
- 25 Antonino Gallo
- 44 Tiago Gabriel
- 5 Jamil Siebert
- 17 Danilo Veiga
- 20 Ivan Ilić
- 14 Youssef Maleh
- 29 Lassana Coulibaly
- 99 Joël Monteiro
- 9 Nikola Štulić
- 11 N'Dri Konan
Bench: Marco Bleve, Ali Dembélé, Corrie Ndaba, Kialonda Gaspar, Amar Fatah, Sadik Fofana, Gaby Jean, Paco Esteban, Olaf Gorter, Elijah Scott, Alexandru Borbei, Santiago Pierotti, Mohamed Kaba, Oumar Ngom
Monza lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 20 Demba Thiam
- 44 Andrea Carboni
- 3 Lorenzo Lucchesi
- 60 Eddy Kouadio
- 7 Ricardo Mangas
- 14 Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
- 90 Michael Folorunsho
- 19 Samuele Birindelli
- 46 Jay Robinson
- 28 Andrea Colpani
- 9 Gustavo Varela
Bench: Noel Törnqvist, Saba Goglichidze, Yvan Maye, Valentin Antov, Manga Foe Ondoa, Patrick Cutrone, Omari Forson, Leonardo Colombo, Exequiel Zeballos, Adam Bakoune, Aljaz Strajnar, Dany Mota, Mathis Mout
Lecce vs Monza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lecce 4 · draws 5 · Monza 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Monza | 0-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-12-15 | Lecce | 2-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2024-04-27 | Lecce | 1-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2023-09-17 | Monza | 1-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-05-28 | Monza | 0-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2022-09-11 | Lecce | 1-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2022-02-27 | Monza | 0-1 | Lecce | Serie B |
| 2021-10-01 | Lecce | 3-0 | Monza | Serie B |
| 2021-05-04 | Monza | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie B |
| 2021-01-04 | Lecce | 0-0 | Monza | Serie B |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Venezia vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Genoa vs Frosinone 2026-09-12
- Lazio v AC Milan — match page 2026-09-12
- Atalanta vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Napoli vs Bologna 2026-09-13
- Sassuolo v Juventus — match page 2026-09-13
- Torino vs Roma 2026-09-14
- Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-09-14
Before and after this match
- Lecce, previous: Cagliari vs Lecce: odds and pick
- Lecce, next: AC Milan vs Lecce prediction
- Monza, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza prediction
- Monza, next: Monza vs Sassuolo: odds and pick