Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Napoli
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fiorentina vs Napoli: model vs market
| Source | Fiorentina | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | +9% | +1% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fiorentina vs Napoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 3.34 | 3.20 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.41 | -0.01 |
| Napoli | 2.16 | 2.24 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fiorentina and Napoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Fiorentina / Napoli)
- 1.30 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Fiorentina / Napoli)
- 1.10 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fiorentina vs Napoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fiorentina vs Napoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fiorentina vs Napoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Napoli | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fiorentina or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Napoli) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win by 2+ | 16% | 6.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fiorentina and Napoli recent form
Fiorentina
3W 0D 3L
Napoli
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fiorentina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Napoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Fiorentina at home only, Napoli away only.
Injuries & availability
Fiorentina absences
-
F. Parisi
knee injury
-
R. Sottil
back injury
Napoli absences
-
A. Buongiorno
knee injury
-
A. Meret
muscle injury
-
Alisson Santos
muscle injury
-
Giovane
groin injury
-
L. Marianucci
knee injury
-
L. Spinazzola
muscle injury
-
S. McTominay
heart problems
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Fiorentina lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 43 David De Gea
- 33 Viery
- 6 Luca Ranieri
- 3 Radu Drăguşin
- 20 Álex Jiménez
- 44 Nicolò Fagioli
- 14 Arthur Atta
- 25 Alieu Njie
- 30 Franco Mastantuono
- 27 Cher Ndour
- 32 Mateo Pellegrino
Bench: Dodô, Marco Brescianini, Marin Pongračić, João Mário, Luca Lezzerini, Víctor Valdepeñas, Beto, Pedro Gonçalves, Wilfried Gnonto, Christ Inao Oulaï, Oliver Christensen, Brando Mazzeo
Napoli lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 32 Vanja Milinković-Savić
- 17 Mathías Olivera
- 16 Rafa Marín
- 13 Amir Rrahmani
- 22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo
- 68 Stanislav Lobotka
- 6 Billy Gilmour
- 70 Noa Lang
- 11 Kevin De Bruyne
- 21 Matteo Politano
- 19 Rasmus Højlund
Bench: Costantino Favasuli, Benoît Badiashile, David Neres, Claudio Pugliese, Nikita Contini, Lorenzo Lucca, Antonio Vergara, Sam Beukema, Frank Anguissa
Fiorentina vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fiorentina 2 · draws 2 · Napoli 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Napoli | 2-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-09-13 | Fiorentina | 1-3 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-03-09 | Napoli | 2-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-01-04 | Fiorentina | 0-3 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-05-17 | Fiorentina | 2-2 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-01-18 | Napoli | 3-0 | Fiorentina | Super Cup |
| 2023-10-08 | Napoli | 1-3 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2023-05-07 | Napoli | 1-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2022-08-28 | Fiorentina | 0-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2022-04-10 | Napoli | 2-3 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monza vs Sassuolo 2026-09-18
- Udinese v Cagliari — match page 2026-09-19
- Bologna vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Roma vs Inter 2026-09-19
- Venezia v Lazio — match page 2026-09-19
- Frosinone vs Como 2026-09-20
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa — match page 2026-09-20
- Juventus vs Atalanta — team news & stats 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Fiorentina, previous: Venezia – Fiorentina, 2026-09-11
- Fiorentina, next: Genoa – Fiorentina, 2026-10-10
- Napoli, previous: Napoli vs Bologna prediction
- Napoli, next: Napoli vs Frosinone prediction