Updated

Serie A · Matchday 4

Genoa vs Frosinone

· Luigi Ferraris, Genova· Referee Antonio Rapuano, Italy

Full time1 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Frosinone to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GenoaDrawFrosinone

Why this pick: Genoa vs Frosinone

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

GenoaFrosinone
0.98 xG per 90 1.37
0.91 npxG per 90 1.29
11.7 PPDA 14.4
4.9 Deep completions per 90 5.7
0.97 xPTS per 90 1.37

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Genoa vs Frosinone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGenoaDrawFrosinone
Model13%22%65%
Market43%29%28%
Published35%27%38%
Edge-30%-7%+37%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Frosinone below the model: +36.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Genoa vs Frosinone odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 4.90Now 3.36 -1.54
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Genoa1.542.22+0.68
Draw3.303.30+0.00
Frosinone4.903.36-1.54

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Genoa and Frosinone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.95Genoa
2.27Frosinone
Total expected goals
3.22
Attack rating (Genoa / Frosinone)
1.02 / 1.67
Defence rating (Genoa / Frosinone)
1.15 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Genoa vs Frosinone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 7.3% 10.3% 7.8% 7.5% 1 2.1% 10.4% 9.8% 7.4% 7.1% 2 1.8% 4.1% 4.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Genoa vs Frosinone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Genoa vs Frosinone

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Genoa35%2.83
Draw27%3.69
Frosinone38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.66
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.32
Double chance1X (Genoa or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Frosinone)65%1.55
Handicap -1Frosinone win by 2+44%2.28
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Genoa and Frosinone recent form

Genoa 1W 0D 5L
Frosinone 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Genoa at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Frosinone away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, Frosinone away only.

Injuries & availability

Genoa absences

  • E. Havel ankle injury
  • L. Venturino knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Genoa lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Justin Bijlow
  2. 22 Johan Vásquez
  3. 5 Leo Østigård
  4. 27 Alessandro Marcandalli
  5. 77 Mikael Ellertsson
  6. 97 Djibril Sow
  7. 8 Tommaso Baldanzi
  8. 32 Morten Frendrup
  9. 3 Kingsley Ehizibue
  10. 29 Lorenzo Colombo
  11. 18 Milutin Osmajić

Bench: Mario Mitaj, Alexsandro Amorim, Vitinha, Junior Messias, Franz-Ethan Meichtry, Cody Drameh, Stefano Sabelli, Hamed Junior Traorè, David Puczka, Sebastian Otoa, Daniele Sommariva, Samuel Wiafe, Stephan El Shaarawy, Franz Stolz

Frosinone lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 22 Lorenzo Palmisani
  2. 79 Gabriele Bracaglia
  3. 2 Giorgio Cittadini
  4. 3 Gabriele Calvani
  5. 20 Anthony Oyono
  6. 73 Patrizio Masini
  7. 10 Romano Schmid
  8. 14 Giacomo Calò
  9. 17 Giorgi Kvernadze
  10. 9 Antonio Raimondo
  11. 7 Farès Ghedjemis

Bench: Wisdom Amey, Daniel Bîrligea, Matteo Pisseri, Matteo Cichella, Alessio Zerbin, Kevin Akpoguma, Ilario Monterisi, Anouar El Azzouzi, Seydou Fini, Luis Hasa, Aleksa Terzić, Omar Fayed, Tomáš Bobček, Enzo Tchato Mbiayi, Sebastiano Desplanches

Genoa vs Frosinone head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Genoa 3 · draws 3 · Frosinone 2.

GenoaDrawsFrosinone
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-03-30Genoa1-1FrosinoneSerie A
2023-11-26Frosinone2-1GenoaSerie A
2023-05-13Frosinone3-2GenoaSerie B
2022-12-18Genoa1-0FrosinoneSerie B
2019-03-03Genoa0-0FrosinoneSerie A
2018-09-30Frosinone1-2GenoaSerie A
2016-04-03Genoa4-0FrosinoneSerie A
2015-11-08Frosinone2-2GenoaSerie A

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match