Updated

Serie A · Matchday 4

Sassuolo vs Juventus

· Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia· Referee Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy

Full time3 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Juventus to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SassuoloDrawJuventus

Why this pick: Sassuolo vs Juventus

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sassuolo 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SassuoloJuventus
1.84 xG per 90 1.85
1.84 npxG per 90 1.85
14.7 PPDA 10.2
7.6 Deep completions per 90 10.1
1.57 xPTS per 90 2.20

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sassuolo vs Juventus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSassuoloDrawJuventus
Model17%25%58%
Market18%24%58%
Published18%24%58%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.07.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sassuolo vs Juventus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 29 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.49Now 1.64 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sassuolo5.305.30+0.00
Draw3.704.00+0.30
Juventus1.491.64+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sassuolo and Juventus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Sassuolo
2.03Juventus
Total expected goals
3.10
Attack rating (Sassuolo / Juventus)
1.31 / 1.50
Defence rating (Sassuolo / Juventus)
1.15 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sassuolo vs Juventus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 7.2% 9.3% 6.3% 5.1% 1 2.9% 11.7% 9.9% 6.7% 5.5% 2 2.6% 5.2% 5.3% 3.6% 2.9% 3 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4%

Rows: Sassuolo goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sassuolo vs Juventus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sassuolo vs Juventus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sassuolo18%5.61
Draw24%4.15
Juventus58%1.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.44
Double chance1X (Sassuolo or draw)42%2.38
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Juventus)82%1.22
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+36%2.76
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sassuolo and Juventus recent form

Sassuolo 2W 2D 2L
Juventus 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sassuolo at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Juventus away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Sassuolo at home only, Juventus away only.

Injuries & availability

Sassuolo absences

  • C. Volpato thigh injury
  • D. Boloca muscle injury
  • E. Pieragnolo knee injury
  • F. Cande knee injury
  • I. Kone broken leg
  • S. Walukiewicz muscle injury
  • Y. Paz knee injury

Juventus absences

  • A. Cambiaso ankle injury
  • A. Milik inactive
  • J. Boga muscle injury
  • J. Cabal thigh injury
  • J. Ekhator muscle injury
  • K. Thuram knee injury
  • K. Yildiz foot injury
  • M. Locatelli knee injury
  • W. McKennie muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sassuolo lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 49 Arijanet Murić
  2. 3 Josh Doig
  3. 16 Fedde Leysen
  4. 21 Jay Idzes
  5. 46 Simone Cinquegrano
  6. 35 Luca Lipani
  7. 18 Nemanja Matić
  8. 42 Kristian Thorstvedt
  9. 45 Armand Laurienté
  10. 94 Sebastiano Esposito
  11. 10 Domenico Berardi

Bench: Andrea Ghion, Kieron Bowie, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Vasilije Adžić, Laurs Skjellerup, Ignace Van der Brempt, Lorenzo Nyarko, Benjamín Domínguez, Cas Odenthal, Rafael Obrador, Darryl Bakola, Ibrahim Sulemana, Nicholas Pierini, Stefano Turati

Juventus lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Guglielmo Vicario
  2. 2 Zeki Çelik
  3. 26 Jhon Lucumí
  4. 3 Gleison Bremer
  5. 15 Pierre Kalulu
  6. 8 Teun Koopmeiners
  7. 12 Douglas Luiz
  8. 17 Kerim Alajbegović
  9. 31 Nicolás González
  10. 7 Francisco Conceição
  11. 9 Randal Kolo Muani

Bench: Kamil Grabara, Federico Gatti, Lloyd Kelly, Edon Zhegrova, Carlo Pinsoglio, Daniele Rugani, Nick Woltemade, Pape Matar Sarr, Augusto Owusu, Filippo Pagnucco, Justin Oboavwoduo

Sassuolo vs Juventus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sassuolo 3 · draws 1 · Juventus 6.

SassuoloDrawsJuventus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Juventus1-1SassuoloSerie A
2026-01-06Sassuolo0-3JuventusSerie A
2024-01-16Juventus3-0SassuoloSerie A
2023-09-23Sassuolo4-2JuventusSerie A
2023-04-16Sassuolo1-0JuventusSerie A
2022-08-15Juventus3-0SassuoloSerie A
2022-04-25Sassuolo1-2JuventusSerie A
2022-02-10Juventus2-1SassuoloCoppa Italia
2021-10-27Juventus1-2SassuoloSerie A
2021-05-12Sassuolo1-3JuventusSerie A

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match