Fiorentina VS Torino Football Prediction 05/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Torino

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Torino 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FiorentinaTorino

0.88 xG per 90 1.39

0.88 npxG per 90 1.31

14.9 PPDA 17.1

6.0 Deep completions per 90 4.3

0.90 xPTS per 90 1.06

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Fiorentina vs Torino: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Fiorentina	Draw	Torino
Model	35%	28%	37%
Market	49%	28%	23%
Published	46%	28%	26%
Edge	-14%	0%	+15%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fiorentina vs Torino odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fiorentina, 21 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 1.70Now 1.96 +0.26

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Fiorentina	1.70	1.96	+0.26
Draw	3.38	3.41	+0.03
Torino	4.65	4.22	-0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fiorentina and Torino expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Fiorentina

1.60Torino

Total expected goals: 3.14
Attack rating (Fiorentina / Torino): 1.06 / 1.02
Defence rating (Fiorentina / Torino): 1.35 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fiorentina vs Torino score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 4.8% 5.5% 2.9% 1.7% 1 4.5% 12.8% 8.5% 4.5% 2.6% 2 5.1% 8.2% 6.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3 2.6% 4.2% 3.4% 1.8% 1.0% 4+ 1.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Torino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fiorentina vs Torino goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fiorentina vs Torino

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Fiorentina	46%	2.20
	Draw	28%	3.56
	Torino	26%	3.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.65
	Under 2.5	39%	2.55
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.85
Double chance	1X (Fiorentina or draw)	74%	1.36
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Torino)	54%	1.84
Handicap -1	Fiorentina win by 2+	18%	5.58
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fiorentina and Torino recent form

Fiorentina 2W 2D 2L

Torino 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fiorentina at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Torino away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Fiorentina at home only, Torino away only.

Injuries & availability

Fiorentina absences

A. Atta injury
Dodo injury
F. Parisi knee injury
R. Sottil back injury

Torino absences

C. Casadei rest
F. Israel shoulder injury
P. Pellegri knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Fiorentina vs Torino head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fiorentina 3 · draws 5 · Torino 2.

30% 50% 20%

FiorentinaDrawsTorino

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-02-07	Fiorentina	2-2	Torino	Serie A
2025-08-31	Torino	0-0	Fiorentina	Serie A
2025-01-19	Fiorentina	1-1	Torino	Serie A
2024-11-03	Torino	0-1	Fiorentina	Serie A
2024-03-02	Torino	0-0	Fiorentina	Serie A
2023-12-29	Fiorentina	1-0	Torino	Serie A
2023-05-21	Torino	1-1	Fiorentina	Serie A
2023-02-01	Fiorentina	2-1	Torino	Coppa Italia
2023-01-21	Fiorentina	0-1	Torino	Serie A
2022-01-10	Torino	4-0	Fiorentina	Serie A

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Fiorentina, next: Venezia – Fiorentina, 2026-09-11
Torino, next: Torino – Roma, 2026-09-14