Why this pick: Lazio vs AC Milan
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lazio 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lazio vs AC Milan: model vs market
| Source | Lazio | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 25% | 29% | 45% |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | +10% | +1% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lazio vs AC Milan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| AC Milan | 2.05 | 2.20 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lazio and AC Milan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Lazio / AC Milan)
- 0.96 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Lazio / AC Milan)
- 1.05 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lazio vs AC Milan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lazio vs AC Milan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lazio vs AC Milan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 28% | 3.59 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| AC Milan | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lazio or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Milan) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lazio and AC Milan recent form
Lazio
4W 0D 2L
AC Milan
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lazio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
AC Milan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Lazio at home only, AC Milan away only.
Injuries & availability
Lazio absences
-
A. Furlanetto
knee injury
-
A. Marusic
muscle injury
-
D. Cataldi
groin injury
-
F. Dele-Bashiru
muscle injury
-
L. Pellegrini
injury
-
N. Rovella
injury
-
Patric
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lazio vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lazio 4 · draws 1 · AC Milan 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Lazio | 1-0 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-12-04 | Lazio | 1-0 | AC Milan | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-11-29 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2025-03-02 | AC Milan | 1-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-08-31 | Lazio | 2-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-03-01 | Lazio | 0-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2023-09-30 | AC Milan | 2-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-05-06 | AC Milan | 2-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-01-24 | Lazio | 4-0 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2022-04-24 | Lazio | 1-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Venezia vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Genoa vs Frosinone 2026-09-12
- Atalanta vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lecce v Monza — match page 2026-09-13
- Napoli vs Bologna 2026-09-13
- Sassuolo v Juventus — match page 2026-09-13
- Torino vs Roma 2026-09-14
- Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-09-14
Before and after this match
- Lazio, previous: Udinese vs Lazio prediction
- Lazio, next: Venezia vs Lazio: odds and pick
- AC Milan, previous: Juventus v AC Milan analysis
- AC Milan, next: AC Milan vs Lecce prediction