Why this pick: Como vs Parma Calcio 1913
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Como 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Como vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market
| Source | Como | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| Market | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Published | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 31 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 1.19 | 1.22 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 6.25 | +1.05 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 10.00 | 13.69 | +3.69 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Como and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Como / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.55 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Como / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 0.93 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Como goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Como vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.24 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 7% | 13.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Como or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913) | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 53% | 1.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Como and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
Como
5W 1D 0L
Parma Calcio 1913
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Parma Calcio 1913 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Como at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.
Injuries & availability
Como absences
-
J. Addai
achilles tendon injury
Parma Calcio 1913 absences
-
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
groin injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Como vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Como 3 · draws 4 · Parma Calcio 1913 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Como | 1-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-10-25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-0 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-05-03 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-1 | Como | Serie A |
| 2024-10-19 | Como | 1-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2024-02-24 | Como | 1-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie B |
| 2023-10-20 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-1 | Como | Serie B |
| 2023-03-18 | Como | 2-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie B |
| 2022-10-29 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-0 | Como | Serie B |
| 2022-04-06 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 4-3 | Como | Serie B |
| 2021-11-28 | Como | 1-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie B |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Venezia vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Genoa vs Frosinone 2026-09-12
- Lazio v AC Milan — match page 2026-09-12
- Atalanta vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lecce v Monza — match page 2026-09-13
- Napoli vs Bologna 2026-09-13
- Sassuolo v Juventus — match page 2026-09-13
- Torino vs Roma 2026-09-14
Before and after this match
- Como, previous: Genoa vs Como: odds and pick
- Como, next: Frosinone – Como, 2026-09-20
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza prediction
- Parma Calcio 1913, next: Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa analysis