Updated

Serie A · Matchday 5

Udinese vs Cagliari

· Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine· Referee G. Manganiello

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Udinese to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UdineseDrawCagliari

Why this pick: Udinese vs Cagliari

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

UdineseCagliari
1.42 xG per 90 1.61
1.42 npxG per 90 1.52
18.2 PPDA 20.0
5.4 Deep completions per 90 4.2
1.12 xPTS per 90 1.49

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Udinese vs Cagliari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUdineseDrawCagliari
Model36%27%37%
Market43%29%28%
Published41%29%30%
Edge-7%-2%+9%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Udinese vs Cagliari odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Udinese, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 2.05Now 2.24 +0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Udinese2.052.24+0.19
Draw3.283.26-0.02
Cagliari4.003.40-0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Udinese and Cagliari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Udinese
1.63Cagliari
Total expected goals
3.24
Attack rating (Udinese / Cagliari)
1.07 / 1.08
Defence rating (Udinese / Cagliari)
1.27 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Udinese vs Cagliari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 4.4% 5.2% 2.8% 1.7% 1 4.2% 12.3% 8.4% 4.6% 2.7% 2 5.1% 8.3% 6.7% 3.7% 2.2% 3 2.7% 4.4% 3.6% 2.0% 1.2% 4+ 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.7%

Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Udinese vs Cagliari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Udinese vs Cagliari

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Udinese41%2.44
Draw29%3.47
Cagliari30%3.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.69
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.97
Double chance1X (Udinese or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Cagliari)59%1.69
Handicap -1Udinese win by 2+19%5.34
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Udinese and Cagliari recent form

Udinese 3W 1D 2L
Cagliari 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Udinese at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Cagliari away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, Cagliari away only.

Injuries & availability

Udinese absences

  • J. Arizala thigh injury
  • J. Piotrowski heart problems
  • M. Palma muscle injury
  • O. Solet injury

Cagliari absences

  • M. Felici knee injury
  • M. Nzola lacking match fitness
  • R. Idrissi knee injury
  • Y. Trepy injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Udinese lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 Maduka Okoye
  2. 14 James Abankwah
  3. 27 Christian Kabasele
  4. 77 Enzo Ebosse
  5. 11 Hassane Kamara
  6. 8 Jesper Karlström
  7. 38 Lennon Miller
  8. 23 Mërgim Vojvoda
  9. 32 Jürgen Ekkelenkamp
  10. 10 Nicolò Zaniolo
  11. 9 Keinan Davis

Bench: Sandi Lovrić, Oier Zarraga, Idrissa Gueye, Nicolò Bertola, Vakoun Issouf Bayo, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Bartosz Mrozek, Unai Gómez, Alessandro Zanoli, Daniele Padelli

Cagliari lineup · 4-3-1-2

  1. 1 Elia Caprile
  2. 33 Adam Obert
  3. 15 Juan Rodríguez
  4. 26 Yerry Mina
  5. 2 Zé Pedro
  6. 14 Alessandro Deiola
  7. 6 Harry Winks
  8. 4 Alessandro Romano
  9. 8 Michel Adopo
  10. 31 Paul Mendy
  11. 70 Daniel Maldini

Bench: Kevin Carlos Omoruyi, Jacopo Fazzini, Alen Sherri, Riccardo Ciervo, Roberto Gagliardini, Raphael Kofler, Boris Radunović, Giuseppe Aurelio, Joseph Liteta, Ivan Sulev, Alessandro Sugamele, Alieu Fadera, Yanis Massolin, Yukinari Sugawara

Udinese vs Cagliari head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Udinese 5 · draws 3 · Cagliari 2.

UdineseDrawsCagliari
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Cagliari0-2UdineseSerie A
2025-10-05Udinese1-1CagliariSerie A
2025-05-03Cagliari1-2UdineseSerie A
2024-10-25Udinese2-0CagliariSerie A
2024-02-18Udinese1-1CagliariSerie A
2023-11-01Udinese1-2CagliariCoppa Italia
2023-09-17Cagliari0-0UdineseSerie A
2022-04-03Udinese5-1CagliariSerie A
2021-12-18Cagliari0-4UdineseSerie A
2021-04-21Udinese0-1CagliariSerie A

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match