Torino vs Udinese preview
Torino has a 39% chance of winning, while Udinese sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Torino's expected goals are 1.38 compared to Udinese's 1.48, suggesting a closely matched encounter. Both teams to score stands at 60%, indicating a reasonable likelihood of goals from both sides.
Recent form shows Torino with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Udinese has secured 2 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record is evenly split, with each team claiming 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 meetings. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form raises questions about Torino's ability to secure a positive result.
Why this pick: Torino vs Udinese
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Udinese: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | -8% | 0% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Torino vs Udinese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torino, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 2.30 | 2.36 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.25 | -0.12 |
| Udinese | 3.17 | 3.23 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Udinese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Torino / Udinese)
- 0.89 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Torino / Udinese)
- 1.13 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Udinese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Udinese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Udinese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Udinese | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Udinese) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torino win by 2+ | 16% | 6.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Torino and Udinese recent form
Torino
1W 1D 4L
Udinese
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Udinese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Udinese away only.
Torino vs Udinese head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Torino 2 · draws 2 · Udinese 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Udinese | 2-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2026-01-07 | Torino | 1-2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-04-23 | Torino | 2-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-12-29 | Udinese | 2-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-03-16 | Udinese | 0-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2023-12-23 | Torino | 1-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
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