Why this pick: Monza vs Sassuolo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monza vs Sassuolo: model vs market
| Source | Monza | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | +2% | -3% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Monza vs Sassuolo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sassuolo, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.92 | 2.67 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.35 | -0.01 |
| Sassuolo | 2.44 | 2.62 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monza and Sassuolo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (Monza / Sassuolo)
- 1.24 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Monza / Sassuolo)
- 1.21 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monza vs Sassuolo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monza vs Sassuolo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monza vs Sassuolo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Sassuolo | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monza or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Sassuolo) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sassuolo win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monza and Sassuolo recent form
Monza
2W 1D 3L
Sassuolo
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Sassuolo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Monza at home only, Sassuolo away only.
Injuries & availability
Monza absences
-
I. Toure
contusion
-
J. Ziolkowski
foot injury
-
M. Pessina
knee injury
-
P. Ciurria
inactive
Sassuolo absences
-
C. Volpato
thigh injury
-
D. Boloca
muscle injury
-
E. Pieragnolo
knee injury
-
F. Cande
knee injury
-
I. Kone
broken leg
-
J. Idzes
muscle injury
-
S. Walukiewicz
muscle injury
-
Y. Paz
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Monza lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 Noel Törnqvist
- 44 Andrea Carboni
- 3 Lorenzo Lucchesi
- 60 Eddy Kouadio
- 7 Ricardo Mangas
- 14 Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
- 90 Michael Folorunsho
- 19 Samuele Birindelli
- 46 Jay Robinson
- 10 Patrick Cutrone
- 9 Gustavo Varela
Bench: Saba Goglichidze, Yvan Maye, Valentin Antov, Manga Foe Ondoa, Omari Forson, Cyril Ngonge, Demba Thiam, Leonardo Colombo, Exequiel Zeballos, Adam Bakoune, Andrea Colpani, Aljaz Strajnar, Dany Mota, Mathis Mout
Sassuolo lineup · 4-3-3
- 49 Arijanet Murić
- 3 Josh Doig
- 15 Duje Ćaleta-Car
- 16 Fedde Leysen
- 46 Simone Cinquegrano
- 50 Darryl Bakola
- 18 Nemanja Matić
- 42 Kristian Thorstvedt
- 45 Armand Laurienté
- 94 Sebastiano Esposito
- 10 Domenico Berardi
Bench: Andrea Ghion, Kieron Bowie, Giacomo Satalino, Vasilije Adžić, Laurs Skjellerup, Ignace Van der Brempt, Benjamín Domínguez, Cas Odenthal, Rafael Obrador, Luca Lipani, Ibrahim Sulemana, Nicholas Pierini, Stefano Turati
Monza vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Monza 3 · draws 2 · Sassuolo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-03 | Monza | 2-2 | Sassuolo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-01-28 | Monza | 1-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-10-02 | Sassuolo | 0-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2023-05-19 | Sassuolo | 1-2 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2023-01-22 | Monza | 1-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Udinese v Cagliari — match page 2026-09-19
- Bologna vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Roma vs Inter 2026-09-19
- Venezia v Lazio — match page 2026-09-19
- Fiorentina vs Napoli — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Frosinone vs Como 2026-09-20
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa — match page 2026-09-20
- Juventus vs Atalanta — team news & stats 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Monza, previous: Lecce v Monza analysis
- Monza, next: Lazio – Monza, 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo, previous: Sassuolo vs Juventus: odds and pick
- Sassuolo, next: Sassuolo v AC Milan analysis