Updated

Serie A · Matchday 5

Bologna vs Torino

· Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna· Referee M. Guida

Full time1 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Bologna to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BolognaDrawTorino

Why this pick: Bologna vs Torino

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bologna 10, Torino 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BolognaTorino
1.23 xG per 90 1.41
1.15 npxG per 90 1.33
12.6 PPDA 15.9
4.5 Deep completions per 90 4.4
1.38 xPTS per 90 1.01

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bologna vs Torino: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBolognaDrawTorino
Model43%29%27%
Market49%28%23%
Published48%28%24%
Edge-6%+2%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.23.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bologna vs Torino odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 1.91Now 1.95 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bologna1.911.95+0.04
Draw3.573.46-0.11
Torino4.114.10-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bologna and Torino expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Bologna
1.23Torino
Total expected goals
2.83
Attack rating (Bologna / Torino)
1.03 / 0.92
Defence rating (Bologna / Torino)
1.13 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bologna vs Torino score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 5.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7% 1 7.1% 14.0% 7.2% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.5% 9.3% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 3 4.0% 4.9% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Bologna goals. Columns: Torino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bologna vs Torino goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bologna vs Torino

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bologna48%2.10
Draw28%3.56
Torino24%4.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.86
Under 2.546%2.16
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.43
Double chance1X (Bologna or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Torino)52%1.91
Handicap -1Bologna win by 2+23%4.27
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bologna and Torino recent form

Bologna 1W 2D 3L
Torino 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bologna at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Torino away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Bologna at home only, Torino away only.

Injuries & availability

Bologna absences

  • A. Dovbyk muscle injury

Torino absences

  • C. Adams muscle injury
  • C. Casadei rest
  • F. Israel shoulder injury
  • P. Pellegri knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bologna lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Łukasz Skorupski
  2. 3 Arthur Theate
  3. 14 Torbjørn Heggem
  4. 5 Eivind Helland
  5. 33 Juan Miranda
  6. 4 Tommaso Pobega
  7. 19 Lewis Ferguson
  8. 20 Nadir Zortea
  9. 28 Nicolò Cambiaghi
  10. 91 Roberto Piccoli
  11. 10 Federico Bernardeschi

Bench: Emil Holm, Nikola Moro, Riccardo Orsolini, Mikel Amondarain, Samuel Mbangula, Nicolò Casale, Oussama El Azzouzi, Marco Libra, Jens Odgaard, Jay Enem, Abdel Rahim, Massimo Pessina, Lorenzo De Silvestri, Martin Vitík, Ukko Happonen

Torino lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 20 Lucas Perri
  2. 5 Eray Cömert
  3. 44 Ardian Ismajli
  4. 23 Saúl Coco
  5. 77 Alessio Cacciamani
  6. 28 Kian Fitz-Jim
  7. 8 Rolando Mandragora
  8. 21 Daniel Bragança
  9. 29 Niccolò Fortini
  10. 18 Giovanni Simeone
  11. 10 Nikola Vlašić

Bench: Nathan Patterson, Cristiano Biraghi, Emirhan İlkhan, Zakaria Aboukhlal, Gaetano Oristanio, Ricardo Rodríguez, Pietro Comuzzo, Sandro Kulenović, Diego Mascardi, Rafik Belghali, Gvidas Gineitis, Lapo Siviero, Duván Zapata

Bologna vs Torino head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bologna 5 · draws 3 · Torino 2.

BolognaDrawsTorino
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-15Torino1-2BolognaSerie A
2025-10-29Bologna0-0TorinoSerie A
2025-02-14Bologna3-2TorinoSerie A
2024-12-21Torino0-2BolognaSerie A
2024-05-03Torino0-0BolognaSerie A
2023-11-27Bologna2-0TorinoSerie A
2023-03-06Torino1-0BolognaSerie A
2022-11-06Bologna2-1TorinoSerie A
2022-03-06Bologna0-0TorinoSerie A
2021-12-12Torino2-1BolognaSerie A

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match