Updated

Serie A · Matchday 5

Juventus vs Atalanta

· Allianz Stadium, Turin· Referee L. Zufferli

Full time2 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Juventus to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JuventusDrawAtalanta

Why this pick: Juventus vs Atalanta

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Atalanta 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

JuventusAtalanta
1.88 xG per 90 1.15
1.88 npxG per 90 1.15
8.8 PPDA 14.8
10.0 Deep completions per 90 8.1
2.30 xPTS per 90 1.01

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Juventus vs Atalanta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuventusDrawAtalanta
Model75%19%7%
Market56%25%19%
Published60%24%16%
Edge+19%-7%-13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.63.
  • The market prices Juventus below the model: +19.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Juventus vs Atalanta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 1.58Now 1.72 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Juventus1.581.72+0.14
Draw4.103.80-0.30
Atalanta4.805.00+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juventus and Atalanta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Juventus
0.63Atalanta
Total expected goals
3.00
Attack rating (Juventus / Atalanta)
1.64 / 0.90
Defence rating (Juventus / Atalanta)
0.59 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventus vs Atalanta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1 10.3% 8.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 2 14.0% 8.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3 11.1% 7.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 11.5% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventus vs Atalanta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventus vs Atalanta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Juventus60%1.65
Draw24%4.24
Atalanta16%6.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.74
Under 2.542%2.36
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.28
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Juventus or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Atalanta)40%2.53
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+53%1.88
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Juventus and Atalanta recent form

Juventus 3W 2D 1L
Atalanta 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juventus at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Atalanta away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, Atalanta away only.

Injuries & availability

Juventus absences

  • A. Milik inactive
  • J. Boga muscle injury
  • J. Cabal thigh injury
  • J. Ekhator muscle injury
  • K. Grabara knee injury
  • K. Thuram knee injury
  • K. Yildiz foot injury
  • M. Locatelli knee injury

Atalanta absences

  • I. Hien muscle injury
  • K. Sulemana knee injury
  • O. Kossounou thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Juventus lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Guglielmo Vicario
  2. 2 Zeki Çelik
  3. 26 Jhon Lucumí
  4. 3 Gleison Bremer
  5. 15 Pierre Kalulu
  6. 12 Douglas Luiz
  7. 22 Weston McKennie
  8. 17 Kerim Alajbegović
  9. 31 Nicolás González
  10. 7 Francisco Conceição
  11. 9 Randal Kolo Muani

Bench: Federico Gatti, Lloyd Kelly, Teun Koopmeiners, Edon Zhegrova, Carlo Pinsoglio, Daniele Rugani, Nick Woltemade, Pape Matar Sarr, Riccardo Radu, Filippo Pagnucco, Grady Makiobo Makiobo

Atalanta lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 29 Marco Carnesecchi
  2. 47 Lorenzo Bernasconi
  3. 42 Giorgio Scalvini
  4. 31 Thomas Kristensen
  5. 16 Raoul Bellanova
  6. 13 Éderson
  7. 19 Franck Kessié
  8. 10 Lazar Samardžić
  9. 11 Jonathan Rowe
  10. 90 Nikola Krstović
  11. 17 Charles De Ketelaere

Bench: Mario Pašalić, Gianluca Scamacca, Jacopo Mirra, Giacomo Raspadori, Thomas Pompei, Sead Kolašinac, Relja Obrić, Marco Sportiello, Nicola Zalewski, Gianluca Gaetano, Davide Zappacosta, Eljif Elmas

Juventus vs Atalanta head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Juventus 3 · draws 5 · Atalanta 2.

JuventusDrawsAtalanta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Atalanta0-1JuventusSerie A
2026-02-05Atalanta3-0JuventusCoppa Italia
2025-09-27Juventus1-1AtalantaSerie A
2025-08-16Atalanta1-2JuventusFriendlies Clubs
2025-03-09Juventus0-4AtalantaSerie A
2025-01-14Atalanta1-1JuventusSerie A
2024-05-15Atalanta0-1JuventusCoppa Italia
2024-03-10Juventus2-2AtalantaSerie A
2023-10-01Atalanta0-0JuventusSerie A
2023-08-12Juventus0-0AtalantaFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match