Updated

Serie A · Matchday 5

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa

· Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma· Referee M. Mariani

Full time2 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Genoa to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Parma Calcio 1913DrawGenoa

Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Genoa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Parma Calcio 1913Genoa
0.87 xG per 90 0.90
0.87 npxG per 90 0.81
14.9 PPDA 11.6
4.8 Deep completions per 90 4.4
0.61 xPTS per 90 0.83

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParma Calcio 1913DrawGenoa
Model21%29%50%
Market31%32%37%
Published28%31%41%
Edge-9%-3%+13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Genoa below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Genoa, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 2.63Now 2.55 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Parma Calcio 19133.063.10+0.04
Draw2.913.00+0.09
Genoa2.632.55-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Genoa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Parma Calcio 1913
1.70Genoa
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Genoa)
0.76 / 1.03
Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Genoa)
1.39 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 8.5% 9.1% 5.2% 3.2% 1 4.4% 13.7% 9.7% 5.5% 3.4% 2 3.5% 6.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.8% 3 1.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Parma Calcio 191328%3.52
Draw31%3.23
Genoa41%2.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.26
Double chance1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Genoa)72%1.40
Handicap -1Genoa win by 2+29%3.50
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Genoa recent form

Parma Calcio 1913 1W 1D 4L
Genoa 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Parma Calcio 1913 at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Genoa away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Genoa away only.

Injuries & availability

Parma Calcio 1913 absences

  • A. Bernabe injury
  • H. Nicolussi Caviglia groin injury
  • L. Valenti coach's decision

Genoa absences

  • E. Havel ankle injury
  • J. Vasquez suspended
  • L. Venturino knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Parma Calcio 1913 lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 Edoardo Corvi
  2. 37 Mariano Troilo
  3. 34 Diego Carlos
  4. 15 Enrico Delprato
  5. 14 Emanuele Valeri
  6. 16 Mandela Keita
  7. 4 Vincent Sierro
  8. 72 Dominik Drobnic
  9. 19 El Bilal Touré
  10. 76 Simone Lontani
  11. 9 David Romero

Bench: Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Ousmane Diallo, Benjamin Cremaschi, Pontus Almqvist, Matija Frigan, Simone Ghidotti, Nesta Elphege, Sascha Britschgi, Franco Carboni, Giovanni Daffara, Christian Ordoñez, Abdou-Salam Konate, Giovanni Fabbian

Genoa lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Justin Bijlow
  2. 34 Sebastian Otoa
  3. 5 Leo Østigård
  4. 27 Alessandro Marcandalli
  5. 77 Mikael Ellertsson
  6. 97 Djibril Sow
  7. 32 Morten Frendrup
  8. 3 Kingsley Ehizibue
  9. 8 Tommaso Baldanzi
  10. 10 Junior Messias
  11. 18 Milutin Osmajić

Bench: Mario Mitaj, Alexsandro Amorim, Vitinha, Franz-Ethan Meichtry, Cody Drameh, Stefano Sabelli, Hamed Junior Traorè, Lorenzo Colombo, David Puczka, Daniele Sommariva, Samuel Wiafe, Stephan El Shaarawy, Franz Stolz

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 4 · draws 3 · Genoa 3.

Parma Calcio 1913DrawsGenoa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-18Parma Calcio 19130-0GenoaSerie A
2025-10-19Genoa0-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2025-01-12Genoa1-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2024-11-04Parma Calcio 19130-1GenoaSerie A
2023-02-05Parma Calcio 19132-0GenoaSerie B
2022-09-03Genoa3-3Parma Calcio 1913Serie B
2021-03-19Parma Calcio 19131-2GenoaSerie A
2020-11-30Genoa1-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2020-06-23Genoa1-4Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2019-10-20Parma Calcio 19135-1GenoaSerie A

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match