Why this pick: Frosinone vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Frosinone vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Frosinone | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Published | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Edge | +30% | +5% | -35% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Frosinone vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 5.03 | 6.00 | +0.97 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.58 | +0.55 |
| Como | 1.65 | 1.50 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Frosinone and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Frosinone / Como)
- 1.55 / 1.66
- Defence rating (Frosinone / Como)
- 0.75 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Frosinone vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Frosinone vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Frosinone vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 23% | 4.27 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Como | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Frosinone or draw) | 45% | 2.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 14% | 7.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Frosinone and Como recent form
Frosinone
3W 2D 1L
Como
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Frosinone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Como away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Como away only.
Injuries & availability
Frosinone absences
-
F. Grillitsch
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Frosinone lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 22 Lorenzo Palmisani
- 79 Gabriele Bracaglia
- 30 Ilario Monterisi
- 3 Gabriele Calvani
- 20 Anthony Oyono
- 14 Giacomo Calò
- 73 Patrizio Masini
- 17 Giorgi Kvernadze
- 10 Romano Schmid
- 7 Farès Ghedjemis
- 9 Antonio Raimondo
Bench: Giorgio Cittadini, Wisdom Amey, Daniel Bîrligea, Matteo Pisseri, Matteo Cichella, Alessio Zerbin, Kevin Akpoguma, Anouar El Azzouzi, Seydou Fini, Luis Hasa, Omar Fayed, Tomáš Bobček, Enzo Tchato Mbiayi, Sebastiano Desplanches
Como lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Jean Butez
- 3 Álex Valle
- 99 Trevoh Chalobah
- 4 Jacobo Ramón
- 27 Yan Couto
- 7 Lucas Da Cunha
- 6 Luis Milla
- 20 Martin Baturina
- 10 Nico Paz
- 11 Assane Diao
- 9 Anastasios Douvikas
Bench: Marc Kempf, Máximo Perrone, Maxence Caqueret, Alberto Dossena, Kaiki, Jesús Rodriguez, Edoardo Goldaniga, Samuele Ricci, Mauro Vigorito, Ivan Smolčić, Mattia Liberali, Jayden Addai, Willy Kambwala, Moise Kean, Robert Sánchez
Frosinone vs Como head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Frosinone 4 · draws 0 · Como 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-04 | Como | 0-2 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2022-09-03 | Frosinone | 2-0 | Como | Serie B |
| 2022-02-16 | Frosinone | 1-2 | Como | Serie B |
| 2021-09-17 | Como | 0-2 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2016-08-07 | Frosinone | 3-0 | Como | Coppa Italia |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monza vs Sassuolo 2026-09-18
- Udinese v Cagliari — match page 2026-09-19
- Bologna vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Roma vs Inter 2026-09-19
- Venezia v Lazio — match page 2026-09-19
- Fiorentina vs Napoli — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa — match page 2026-09-20
- Juventus vs Atalanta — team news & stats 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Frosinone, previous: Genoa v Frosinone analysis
- Frosinone, next: Napoli vs Frosinone prediction
- Como, previous: Como vs Parma Calcio 1913: odds and pick
- Como, next: Como v Roma analysis