Cagliari vs Juventus preview
Cagliari has a 14% chance of winning, while Juventus stands at 62%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Juventus has an expected goals figure of 2.22, compared to Cagliari's 0.79. This suggests a significant gap in attacking potential, but it does not guarantee a straightforward victory for Juventus.
Recent form shows Cagliari with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Juventus has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. In their last 6 encounters, Cagliari has won once, Juventus has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The confidence grade is A, but the variability in recent performances introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: Cagliari vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| Market | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| Published | 14% | 24% | 63% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.79.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cagliari vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 6.60 | 6.28 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 4.26 | 3.92 | -0.33 |
| Juventus | 1.50 | 1.56 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Juventus)
- 1.05 / 1.60
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Juventus)
- 1.18 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 14% | 7.21 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Juventus | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 37% | 2.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 46% | 2.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cagliari and Juventus recent form
Cagliari
4W 0D 2L
Juventus
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Juventus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Juventus away only.
Injuries & availability
Cagliari
- A. Deiola knee injury
-
Kevin
muscle injury
-
M. Felici
knee injury
-
R. Idrissi
knee injury
-
Y. Trepy
injury
Juventus
-
A. Milik
inactive
-
J. Boga
muscle injury
-
J. Cabal
thigh injury
-
J. Ekhator
muscle injury
-
K. Grabara
knee injury
-
K. Thuram
knee injury
-
K. Yildiz
foot injury
-
M. Locatelli
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Cagliari vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cagliari 1 · draws 2 · Juventus 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Cagliari | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-11-29 | Juventus | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-02-23 | Cagliari | 0-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-10-06 | Juventus | 1-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-04-19 | Cagliari | 2-2 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-11-11 | Juventus | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
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