Updated

Serie A · Matchday 4

Inter vs Udinese

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano· Referee Luca Pairetto, Italy

Full time5 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Inter to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
InterDrawUdinese

Why this pick: Inter vs Udinese

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

InterUdinese
2.39 xG per 90 1.43
2.39 npxG per 90 1.43
11.7 PPDA 13.6
12.6 Deep completions per 90 6.2
2.12 xPTS per 90 1.25

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Inter vs Udinese: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInterDrawUdinese
Model58%23%20%
Market79%14%7%
Published74%16%10%
Edge-21%+9%+13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.34.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Inter vs Udinese odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inter, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-01.

Opened 1.25Now 1.20 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Inter1.251.20-0.05
Draw4.706.85+2.15
Udinese6.7514.00+7.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Inter and Udinese expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.32Inter
1.34Udinese
Total expected goals
3.66
Attack rating (Inter / Udinese)
1.60 / 1.07
Defence rating (Inter / Udinese)
1.06 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inter vs Udinese score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 1.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1 4.4% 9.6% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1% 2 6.9% 9.3% 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 3 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 4+ 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0%

Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inter vs Udinese goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inter vs Udinese

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inter74%1.35
Draw16%6.23
Udinese10%10.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.43
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.14
Double chance1X (Inter or draw)90%1.11
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Udinese)26%3.84
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+38%2.64
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inter and Udinese recent form

Inter 3W 2D 1L
Udinese 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inter at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Udinese away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Udinese away only.

Injuries & availability

Inter absences

  • D. Spence injury

Udinese absences

  • A. Zanoli knee injury
  • J. Arizala thigh injury
  • J. Piotrowski heart problems
  • M. Palma muscle injury
  • N. Zaniolo thigh injury
  • O. Solet injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Inter lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Josep Martínez
  2. 95 Alessandro Bastoni
  3. 25 Manuel Akanji
  4. 6 John Stones
  5. 30 Carlos Augusto
  6. 22 Henrikh Mkhitaryan
  7. 7 Piotr Zieliński
  8. 23 Nicolò Barella
  9. 17 Andy Diouf
  10. 94 Pio Esposito
  11. 9 Marcus Thuram

Bench: Aleksandar Stanković, Petar Sučić, Lautaro Martínez, Luís Henrique, Raffaele Di Gennaro, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Curtis Jones, Benjamin Pavard, Yann Bisseck, Federico Dimarco, Mattia Mosconi, Ivan Provedel

Udinese lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 Maduka Okoye
  2. 77 Enzo Ebosse
  3. 27 Christian Kabasele
  4. 14 James Abankwah
  5. 11 Hassane Kamara
  6. 38 Lennon Miller
  7. 8 Jesper Karlström
  8. 23 Mërgim Vojvoda
  9. 32 Jürgen Ekkelenkamp
  10. 46 Unai Gómez
  11. 9 Keinan Davis

Bench: Sandi Lovrić, Oier Zarraga, Idrissa Gueye, Nicolò Bertola, Vakoun Issouf Bayo, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Bartosz Mrozek, Giulio Vinciati, Lazar Jovanović, Daniele Padelli

Inter vs Udinese head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Inter 8 · draws 0 · Udinese 2.

InterDrawsUdinese
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Udinese0-1InterSerie A
2025-08-31Inter1-2UdineseSerie A
2025-03-30Inter2-1UdineseSerie A
2024-12-19Inter2-0UdineseCoppa Italia
2024-09-28Udinese2-3InterSerie A
2024-04-08Udinese1-2InterSerie A
2023-12-09Inter4-0UdineseSerie A
2023-02-18Inter3-1UdineseSerie A
2022-09-18Udinese3-1InterSerie A
2022-05-01Udinese1-2InterSerie A

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match