Updated

Serie A · Matchday 5

Roma vs Inter

· Stadio Olimpico, Rome· Referee D. Massa

Full time2 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Roma to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RomaDrawInter

Why this pick: Roma vs Inter

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RomaInter
2.91 xG per 90 2.54
2.74 npxG per 90 2.54
8.9 PPDA 11.7
10.6 Deep completions per 90 13.0
2.66 xPTS per 90 2.12

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Roma vs Inter: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRomaDrawInter
Model54%22%23%
Market35%28%37%
Published40%26%33%
Edge+19%-6%-13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.59.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Roma below the model: +19.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Roma vs Inter odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Roma, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 2.70Now 2.70 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Roma2.702.70+0.00
Draw3.383.45+0.07
Inter2.732.60-0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Roma and Inter expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.40Roma
1.59Inter
Total expected goals
3.99
Attack rating (Roma / Inter)
1.77 / 1.72
Defence rating (Roma / Inter)
0.78 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roma vs Inter score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.7% 1 3.0% 8.5% 5.6% 3.0% 1.7% 2 5.3% 8.5% 6.7% 3.6% 2.0% 3 4.3% 6.8% 5.4% 2.8% 1.6% 4+ 4.5% 7.2% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7%

Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roma vs Inter goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roma vs Inter

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Roma40%2.49
Draw26%3.80
Inter33%2.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.16
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.36
No26%3.80
Double chance1X (Roma or draw)67%1.50
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Inter)60%1.67
Handicap -1Roma win by 2+35%2.82
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Roma and Inter recent form

Roma 5W 1D 0L
Inter 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Roma at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Inter away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Inter away only.

Injuries & availability

Roma absences

  • M. Bah knee injury

Inter absences

  • D. Spence injury
  • H. Calhanoglu muscle injury
  • J. Stones injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Roma lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 99 Mile Svilar
  2. 22 Mario Hermoso
  3. 5 Evan Ndicka
  4. 23 Gianluca Mancini
  5. 43 Wesley
  6. 17 Manu Koné
  7. 4 Bryan Cristante
  8. 20 Nahuel Molina
  9. 18 Matías Soulé
  10. 21 Paulo Dybala
  11. 14 Donyell Malen

Bench: Devyne Rensch, Konstantinos Koulierakis, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Santiago Castro, Marten de Roon, Leonardo Balerdi, Niccolò Pisilli, Giorgio De Marzi, Emanuele Lulli, Rodrigo Mora, Daniele Ghilardi, Pierluigi Gollini

Inter lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Josep Martínez
  2. 95 Alessandro Bastoni
  3. 25 Manuel Akanji
  4. 31 Yann Bisseck
  5. 32 Federico Dimarco
  6. 21 Curtis Jones
  7. 7 Piotr Zieliński
  8. 23 Nicolò Barella
  9. 17 Andy Diouf
  10. 10 Lautaro Martínez
  11. 9 Marcus Thuram

Bench: Aleksandar Stanković, Petar Sučić, Luís Henrique, Raffaele Di Gennaro, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Benjamin Pavard, Carlos Augusto, Leonardo Bovio, Mattia Mosconi, Ivan Provedel, Pio Esposito

Roma vs Inter head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Roma 2 · draws 0 · Inter 8.

RomaDrawsInter
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Inter5-2RomaSerie A
2025-10-18Roma0-1InterSerie A
2025-04-27Inter0-1RomaSerie A
2024-10-20Roma0-1InterSerie A
2024-02-10Roma2-4InterSerie A
2023-10-29Inter1-0RomaSerie A
2023-05-06Roma0-2InterSerie A
2022-10-01Inter1-2RomaSerie A
2022-04-23Inter3-1RomaSerie A
2022-02-08Inter2-0RomaCoppa Italia

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match