Why this pick: Roma vs Atalanta
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Atalanta 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Roma vs Atalanta: model vs market
| Source | Roma | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Roma vs Atalanta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 22 snapshots since 2026-08-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 2.19 | 1.67 | -0.52 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 4.05 | +0.75 |
| Atalanta | 3.45 | 5.00 | +1.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roma and Atalanta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Roma / Atalanta)
- 1.77 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Roma / Atalanta)
- 0.87 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roma vs Atalanta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roma vs Atalanta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roma vs Atalanta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Atalanta | 17% | 5.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roma or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Atalanta) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 44% | 2.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Roma and Atalanta recent form
Roma
6W 0D 0L
Atalanta
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Atalanta away only.
Injuries & availability
Roma absences
-
D. Rensch
muscle injury
-
L. Pellegrini
thigh injury
-
M. Bah
knee injury
Atalanta absences
-
I. Hien
muscle injury
-
K. Sulemana
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Roma vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Roma 2 · draws 2 · Atalanta 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Roma | 1-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2026-01-03 | Atalanta | 1-0 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-05-12 | Atalanta | 2-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-12-02 | Roma | 0-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2024-05-12 | Atalanta | 2-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-01-07 | Roma | 1-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2023-04-24 | Atalanta | 3-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2022-09-18 | Roma | 0-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2022-03-05 | Roma | 1-0 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2021-12-18 | Atalanta | 1-4 | Roma | Serie A |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
- Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
- Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
- Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
- Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Roma, previous: Lecce – Roma, 2026-08-31
- Roma, next: Torino – Roma, 2026-09-14
- Atalanta, previous: Atalanta v Bologna analysis
- Atalanta, next: Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction