Updated

Serie A · Matchday 3

Bologna vs Sassuolo

· Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna· Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy

Full time2 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Bologna to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BolognaDrawSassuolo

Why this pick: Bologna vs Sassuolo

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bologna 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BolognaSassuolo
1.33 xG per 90 1.79
1.25 npxG per 90 1.79
12.0 PPDA 15.1
4.7 Deep completions per 90 7.4
1.58 xPTS per 90 1.64

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bologna vs Sassuolo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBolognaDrawSassuolo
Model32%29%39%
Market47%27%26%
Published43%28%29%
Edge-15%+1%+13%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bologna vs Sassuolo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 1.95Now 2.05 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bologna1.952.05+0.10
Draw3.403.48+0.08
Sassuolo4.103.69-0.41

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bologna and Sassuolo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Bologna
1.57Sassuolo
Total expected goals
2.97
Attack rating (Bologna / Sassuolo)
1.05 / 1.28
Defence rating (Bologna / Sassuolo)
1.05 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bologna vs Sassuolo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 5.8% 6.3% 3.3% 1.8% 1 4.9% 13.5% 8.9% 4.6% 2.6% 2 5.0% 7.9% 6.2% 3.2% 1.8% 3 2.3% 3.7% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 4+ 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Bologna goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bologna vs Sassuolo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bologna vs Sassuolo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bologna43%2.33
Draw28%3.59
Sassuolo29%3.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.33
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.63
Double chance1X (Bologna or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Sassuolo)57%1.75
Handicap -1Bologna win by 2+16%6.44
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bologna and Sassuolo recent form

Bologna 2W 2D 2L
Sassuolo 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bologna at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Sassuolo away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bologna at home only, Sassuolo away only.

Injuries & availability

Bologna absences

  • O. El Azzouzi thigh injury
  • R. Orsolini injury

Sassuolo absences

  • D. Boloca muscle injury
  • E. Pieragnolo knee injury
  • F. Cande knee injury
  • I. Kone broken leg
  • S. Walukiewicz muscle injury
  • Y. Paz knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Bologna vs Sassuolo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bologna 4 · draws 4 · Sassuolo 2.

BolognaDrawsSassuolo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Sassuolo0-1BolognaSerie A
2025-12-28Bologna1-1SassuoloSerie A
2024-02-03Bologna4-2SassuoloSerie A
2023-10-28Sassuolo1-1BolognaSerie A
2023-05-08Sassuolo1-1BolognaSerie A
2022-11-12Bologna3-0SassuoloSerie A
2022-05-15Bologna1-3SassuoloSerie A
2021-12-22Sassuolo0-3BolognaSerie A
2021-02-20Sassuolo1-1BolognaSerie A
2020-10-18Bologna3-4SassuoloSerie A

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match