Juventus VS AC Milan Football Prediction 06/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Juventus vs AC Milan

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

JuventusAC Milan

1.94 xG per 90 1.47

1.94 npxG per 90 1.32

10.8 PPDA 17.1

11.3 Deep completions per 90 6.9

2.16 xPTS per 90 1.40

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Juventus vs AC Milan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Juventus	Draw	AC Milan
Model	62%	23%	15%
Market	44%	30%	26%
Published	49%	28%	23%
Edge	+18%	-7%	-11%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.06.
The market prices Juventus below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Juventus vs AC Milan odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 24 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 2.05Now 2.16 +0.11

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Juventus	2.05	2.16	+0.11
Draw	3.10	3.25	+0.15
AC Milan	3.10	3.71	+0.61

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juventus and AC Milan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Juventus

1.06AC Milan

Total expected goals: 3.29
Attack rating (Juventus / AC Milan): 1.55 / 1.27
Defence rating (Juventus / AC Milan): 0.71 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventus vs AC Milan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1 6.6% 10.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 2 9.3% 9.8% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 6.9% 7.3% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 6.5% 6.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%

Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventus vs AC Milan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventus vs AC Milan

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Juventus	49%	2.04
	Draw	28%	3.58
	AC Milan	23%	4.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.56
	Under 2.5	36%	2.77
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.50
Double chance	1X (Juventus or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or AC Milan)	51%	1.96
Handicap -1	Juventus win by 2+	41%	2.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Juventus and AC Milan recent form

Juventus 3W 2D 1L

AC Milan 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juventus at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

AC Milan away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, AC Milan away only.

Injuries & availability

Juventus absences

A. Cambiaso ankle injury
E. Zhegrova muscle injury
J. Cabal thigh injury
J. Ekhator muscle injury
K. Thuram knee injury
K. Yildiz foot injury
P. M. Sarr muscle injury
W. McKennie muscle injury

AC Milan absences

M. Gabbia ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Juventus vs AC Milan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Juventus 2 · draws 5 · AC Milan 3.

20% 50% 30%

JuventusDrawsAC Milan

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-26	AC Milan	0-0	Juventus	Serie A
2025-10-05	Juventus	0-0	AC Milan	Serie A
2025-01-18	Juventus	2-0	AC Milan	Serie A
2025-01-03	Juventus	1-2	AC Milan	Super Cup
2024-11-23	AC Milan	0-0	Juventus	Serie A
2024-04-27	Juventus	0-0	AC Milan	Serie A
2023-10-22	AC Milan	0-1	Juventus	Serie A
2023-07-28	Juventus	2-2	AC Milan	Friendlies Clubs
2023-05-28	Juventus	0-1	AC Milan	Serie A
2022-10-08	AC Milan	2-0	Juventus	Serie A

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Juventus, next: Sassuolo vs Juventus: odds and pick
AC Milan, next: Lazio – AC Milan, 2026-09-12