Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Monza 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza: model vs market
| Source | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 28% | 53% |
| Market | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Published | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Edge | -16% | -4% | +19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monza below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monza, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 1.80 | 2.73 | +0.93 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.04 | -0.31 |
| Monza | 4.20 | 2.86 | -1.34 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Monza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Monza)
- 0.70 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Monza)
- 1.20 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Monza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 31% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Monza | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Monza) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monza win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Monza recent form
Parma Calcio 1913
2W 0D 4L
Monza
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Parma Calcio 1913 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Monza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Monza away only.
Injuries & availability
Parma Calcio 1913 absences
-
A. Bernabe
inactive
-
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
groin injury
-
O. Diallo
injury
Monza absences
-
G. Varela
thigh injury
-
I. Toure
contusion
-
J. Ziolkowski
foot injury
-
M. Pessina
knee injury
-
P. Ciurria
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 1 · draws 3 · Monza 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Monza | 1-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2024-12-28 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2022-03-02 | Monza | 1-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie B |
| 2021-10-17 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-0 | Monza | Serie B |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
- Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
- Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
- Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
- Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Parma Calcio 1913, next: Como vs Parma Calcio 1913: odds and pick
- Monza, next: Lecce v Monza analysis