Updated

Serie A · Matchday 3

Cagliari vs Lecce

· Unipol Domus, Cagliari· Referee Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy

Full time1 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Cagliari to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CagliariDrawLecce

Why this pick: Cagliari vs Lecce

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

CagliariLecce
1.46 xG per 90 1.30
1.46 npxG per 90 1.30
18.3 PPDA 14.1
4.0 Deep completions per 90 3.9
1.36 xPTS per 90 0.94

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Cagliari vs Lecce: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCagliariDrawLecce
Model51%24%25%
Market47%31%23%
Published48%29%23%
Edge+4%-7%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Cagliari below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cagliari vs Lecce odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cagliari, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 2.34Now 2.09 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cagliari2.342.09-0.25
Draw3.053.20+0.15
Lecce3.353.98+0.63

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cagliari and Lecce expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.15Cagliari
1.51Lecce
Total expected goals
3.66
Attack rating (Cagliari / Lecce)
1.04 / 1.00
Defence rating (Cagliari / Lecce)
1.28 / 1.61

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cagliari vs Lecce score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 2.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 1 3.9% 10.0% 6.3% 3.2% 1.7% 2 6.0% 9.0% 6.8% 3.4% 1.8% 3 4.3% 6.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.3% 4+ 3.8% 5.7% 4.3% 2.2% 1.1%

Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cagliari vs Lecce goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cagliari vs Lecce

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cagliari48%2.10
Draw29%3.45
Lecce23%4.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.42
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.42
No30%3.39
Double chance1X (Cagliari or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Lecce)52%1.91
Handicap -1Cagliari win by 2+31%3.18
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cagliari and Lecce recent form

Cagliari 4W 0D 2L
Lecce 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cagliari at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Lecce away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Lecce away only.

Injuries & availability

Cagliari absences

  • Kevin personal reasons
  • M. Nzola lacking match fitness
  • R. Idrissi knee injury
  • Y. Mina calf injury
  • Y. Sugawara inactive
  • Y. Trepy injury

Lecce absences

  • W. Geubbels injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Cagliari vs Lecce head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cagliari 3 · draws 4 · Lecce 3.

CagliariDrawsLecce
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-16Cagliari0-2LecceSerie A
2025-09-19Lecce1-2CagliariSerie A
2025-01-19Cagliari4-1LecceSerie A
2024-08-31Lecce1-0CagliariSerie A
2024-05-05Cagliari1-1LecceSerie A
2024-01-06Lecce1-1CagliariSerie A
2020-07-12Cagliari0-0LecceSerie A
2019-11-25Lecce2-2CagliariSerie A
2012-02-26Cagliari1-2LecceSerie A
2011-10-02Lecce0-2CagliariSerie A

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match