Why this pick: Lecce vs Roma
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lecce 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lecce vs Roma: model vs market
| Source | Lecce | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Market | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| Published | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Edge | -1% | -4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lecce vs Roma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 5.40 | 7.50 | +2.10 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 4.33 | +0.83 |
| Roma | 1.74 | 1.45 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lecce and Roma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.86
- Attack rating (Lecce / Roma)
- 0.99 / 1.63
- Defence rating (Lecce / Roma)
- 1.47 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lecce vs Roma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lecce goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lecce vs Roma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lecce vs Roma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 12% | 8.12 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Roma | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lecce or draw) | 33% | 3.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Roma) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 52% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lecce and Roma recent form
Lecce
4W 0D 2L
Roma
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Lecce absences
-
L. Banda
inactive
Roma absences
-
D. Rensch
muscle injury
-
L. Balerdi
calf injury
-
L. Pellegrini
thigh injury
-
M. Bah
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lecce vs Roma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lecce 0 · draws 2 · Roma 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Roma | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2026-01-06 | Lecce | 0-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-03-29 | Lecce | 0-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-12-07 | Roma | 4-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce | 0-0 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2023-11-05 | Roma | 2-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-02-11 | Lecce | 1-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2022-10-09 | Roma | 2-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2022-01-20 | Roma | 3-1 | Lecce | Coppa Italia |
| 2020-02-23 | Roma | 4-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Napoli vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Lazio vs Genoa 2026-08-30
- Cagliari v Inter — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Lecce, next: Cagliari vs Lecce: odds and pick
- Roma, next: Roma v Atalanta analysis