Why this pick: Inter vs Napoli
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Inter vs Napoli: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | -10% | +4% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Inter vs Napoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 21 snapshots since 2026-08-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.65 | 1.69 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.83 | +0.53 |
| Napoli | 4.50 | 5.29 | +0.79 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter and Napoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Inter / Napoli)
- 1.58 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Inter / Napoli)
- 0.91 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Napoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Napoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Napoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Napoli | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Napoli) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Inter and Napoli recent form
Inter
4W 2D 0L
Napoli
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Napoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Napoli away only.
Injuries & availability
Inter absences
-
D. Spence
inactive
Napoli absences
-
A. Buongiorno
knee injury
-
Giovane
groin injury
-
L. Marianucci
knee injury
-
S. McTominay
heart problems
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Inter vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Inter 3 · draws 5 · Napoli 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Inter | 2-2 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-10-25 | Napoli | 3-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-03-01 | Napoli | 1-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-11-10 | Inter | 1-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-03-17 | Inter | 1-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-01-22 | Napoli | 0-1 | Inter | Super Cup |
| 2023-12-03 | Napoli | 0-3 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-05-21 | Napoli | 3-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-01-04 | Inter | 1-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2022-02-12 | Napoli | 1-1 | Inter | Serie A |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
- Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
- Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
- Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
- Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Inter, previous: Cagliari vs Inter prediction
- Inter, next: Inter v Udinese analysis
- Napoli, previous: Napoli v Como analysis
- Napoli, next: Napoli vs Bologna prediction