Genoa VS Como Football Prediction 04/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Genoa vs Como

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

GenoaComo

1.04 xG per 90 1.76

0.89 npxG per 90 1.61

10.8 PPDA 8.3

4.7 Deep completions per 90 6.0

0.96 xPTS per 90 1.81

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Genoa vs Como: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Genoa	Draw	Como
Model	25%	28%	47%
Market	19%	27%	54%
Published	20%	27%	52%
Edge	+6%	+1%	-7%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.25.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Genoa vs Como odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Como, 20 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 1.72Now 1.75 +0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Genoa	5.40	5.10	-0.30
Draw	3.50	3.50	+0.00
Como	1.72	1.75	+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Genoa and Como expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Genoa

1.75Como

Total expected goals: 3.00
Attack rating (Genoa / Como): 1.04 / 1.34
Defence rating (Genoa / Como): 1.13 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Genoa vs Como score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 6.6% 7.7% 4.5% 2.9% 1 4.0% 13.1% 9.5% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.9% 6.8% 5.9% 3.5% 2.3% 3 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.9% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Genoa vs Como goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Genoa vs Como

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Genoa	20%	4.94
	Draw	27%	3.66
	Como	52%	1.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.74
	Under 2.5	42%	2.36
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.64
	No	39%	2.57
Double chance	1X (Genoa or draw)	48%	2.10
	12 (either side)	73%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Como)	80%	1.25
Handicap -1	Como win by 2+	27%	3.73
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Genoa and Como recent form

Genoa 1W 1D 4L

Como 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Genoa at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Como away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, Como away only.

Injuries & availability

Genoa absences

L. Venturino knee injury

Como absences

J. Addai achilles tendon injury
M. Kean transfer negotiations

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Genoa vs Como head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Genoa 0 · draws 4 · Como 2.

0% 67% 33%

GenoaDrawsComo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-26	Genoa	0-2	Como	Serie A
2025-09-15	Como	1-1	Genoa	Serie A
2025-04-27	Como	1-0	Genoa	Serie A
2024-11-07	Genoa	1-1	Como	Serie A
2023-04-10	Como	2-2	Genoa	Serie B
2022-11-13	Genoa	1-1	Como	Serie B

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Cagliari vs Lecce 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Genoa, previous: Lazio vs Genoa: odds and pick
Genoa, next: Genoa v Frosinone analysis
Como, previous: Napoli v Como analysis
Como, next: Como vs Parma Calcio 1913: odds and pick