Why this pick: Atalanta vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atalanta vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +7% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atalanta vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.78 | 1.92 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.60 | -0.25 |
| Bologna | 4.40 | 4.10 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Bologna)
- 0.98 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Bologna)
- 1.01 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Bologna | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 20% | 5.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atalanta and Bologna recent form
Atalanta
3W 2D 1L
Bologna
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atalanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Bologna away only.
Injuries & availability
Atalanta absences
-
H. Ahanor
muscle injury
-
I. Hien
muscle injury
-
I. Sulemana
knee injury
-
K. Sulemana
knee injury
-
T. Kristensen
ankle injury
Bologna absences
-
N. Casale
muscle injury
-
O. El Azzouzi
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Atalanta vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atalanta 4 · draws 1 · Bologna 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Atalanta | 0-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2026-01-07 | Bologna | 0-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Atalanta | 2-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-02-04 | Atalanta | 0-1 | Bologna | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-09-28 | Bologna | 1-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2024-03-03 | Atalanta | 1-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-12-23 | Bologna | 1-0 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2023-04-08 | Atalanta | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-01-09 | Bologna | 1-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2022-03-20 | Bologna | 0-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Napoli vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Lazio vs Genoa 2026-08-30
- Cagliari v Inter — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Atalanta, next: Roma v Atalanta analysis
- Bologna, next: Bologna – Sassuolo, 2026-09-06