Updated

Serie A · Matchday 5

AC Milan vs Lecce

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan· Referee F. La Penna

Full time3 – 0

BCCFC prediction was AC Milan to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AC MilanDrawLecce

Why this pick: AC Milan vs Lecce

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AC MilanLecce
1.52 xG per 90 1.45
1.35 npxG per 90 1.45
15.2 PPDA 13.7
6.6 Deep completions per 90 3.7
1.24 xPTS per 90 1.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

AC Milan vs Lecce: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAC MilanDrawLecce
Model53%23%24%
Market76%16%8%
Published70%18%12%
Edge-23%+7%+15%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.48.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AC Milan vs Lecce odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 1.34Now 1.26 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AC Milan1.341.26-0.08
Draw4.906.00+1.10
Lecce7.2511.75+4.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AC Milan and Lecce expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.24AC Milan
1.48Lecce
Total expected goals
3.72
Attack rating (AC Milan / Lecce)
1.05 / 1.00
Defence rating (AC Milan / Lecce)
1.25 / 1.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AC Milan vs Lecce score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 1 3.8% 9.6% 5.9% 2.9% 1.5% 2 6.1% 9.0% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.5% 6.7% 5.0% 2.5% 1.3% 4+ 4.3% 6.4% 4.7% 2.3% 1.2%

Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AC Milan vs Lecce goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AC Milan vs Lecce

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AC Milan70%1.42
Draw18%5.62
Lecce12%8.34
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.55
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.41
Double chance1X (AC Milan or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Lecce)30%3.36
Handicap -1AC Milan win by 2+34%2.96
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AC Milan and Lecce recent form

AC Milan 2W 2D 2L
Lecce 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AC Milan at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Lecce away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Lecce away only.

Injuries & availability

Lecce absences

  • M. Berisha lacking match fitness
  • O. Gandelman inactive
  • W. Geubbels ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

AC Milan lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 16 Mike Maignan
  2. 31 Strahinja Pavlović
  3. 5 Koni De Winter
  4. 34 Mario Gila
  5. 2 Pervis Estupiñán
  6. 12 Adrien Rabiot
  7. 14 Luka Modrić
  8. 21 Samuel Chukwueze
  9. 56 Alexis Saelemaekers
  10. 11 Christian Pulišić
  11. 9 Gonçalo Ramos

Bench: Pietro Terracciano, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Sankhoun Diawara, Omari Hutchinson, Diego Moreira, Fikayo Tomori, Christian Comotto, Ardon Jashari, Davide Bartesaghi, Filippo Terracciano, Matteo Gabbia, Alphadjo Cissè, Francesco Camarda, Yunus Musah, Lorenzo Torriani

Lecce lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 30 Wladimiro Falcone
  2. 25 Antonino Gallo
  3. 5 Jamil Siebert
  4. 4 Kialonda Gaspar
  5. 17 Danilo Veiga
  6. 14 Youssef Maleh
  7. 20 Ivan Ilić
  8. 29 Lassana Coulibaly
  9. 99 Joël Monteiro
  10. 9 Nikola Štulić
  11. 50 Santiago Pierotti

Bench: Marco Bleve, Ali Dembélé, Corrie Ndaba, Amar Fatah, Sadik Fofana, Konan N'Dri, Gaby Jean, Paco Esteban, Olaf Gorter, Elijah Scott, Alexandru Borbei, Mohamed Kaba, Oumar Ngom

AC Milan vs Lecce head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AC Milan 8 · draws 2 · Lecce 0.

AC MilanDrawsLecce
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-18AC Milan1-0LecceSerie A
2025-09-23AC Milan3-0LecceCoppa Italia
2025-08-29Lecce0-2AC MilanSerie A
2025-03-08Lecce2-3AC MilanSerie A
2024-09-27AC Milan3-0LecceSerie A
2024-04-06AC Milan3-0LecceSerie A
2023-11-11Lecce2-2AC MilanSerie A
2023-04-23AC Milan2-0LecceSerie A
2023-01-14Lecce2-2AC MilanSerie A
2020-06-22Lecce1-4AC MilanSerie A

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match