Udinese VS Lazio Football Prediction 07/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Udinese vs Lazio

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

UdineseLazio

1.51 xG per 90 1.27

1.51 npxG per 90 1.18

13.5 PPDA 17.9

6.1 Deep completions per 90 4.7

1.33 xPTS per 90 1.41

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Udinese vs Lazio: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Udinese	Draw	Lazio
Model	44%	30%	26%
Market	35%	31%	35%
Published	37%	30%	32%
Edge	+10%	-1%	-9%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.14.
The market prices Udinese below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Udinese vs Lazio odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Udinese, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-24.

Opened 2.25Now 2.72 +0.47

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Udinese	2.25	2.72	+0.47
Draw	2.95	3.10	+0.15
Lazio	2.85	2.75	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Udinese and Lazio expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Udinese

1.14Lazio

Total expected goals: 2.69
Attack rating (Udinese / Lazio): 1.11 / 0.89
Defence rating (Udinese / Lazio): 1.10 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Udinese vs Lazio score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 5.3% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 1 8.1% 14.4% 6.8% 2.6% 0.9% 2 8.2% 9.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.2% 4.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.3% 2.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Udinese vs Lazio goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Udinese vs Lazio

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Udinese	37%	2.68
	Draw	30%	3.28
	Lazio	32%	3.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	1.98
	Under 2.5	50%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Udinese or draw)	68%	1.48
	12 (either side)	70%	1.44
	X2 (draw or Lazio)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Udinese win by 2+	24%	4.19
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Udinese and Lazio recent form

Udinese 3W 1D 2L

Lazio 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Udinese at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Lazio away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, Lazio away only.

Injuries & availability

Udinese absences

A. Zanoli knee injury
G. Chakvetadze foot injury
J. Arizala thigh injury
M. Palma muscle injury
N. Zaniolo thigh injury

Lazio absences

A. Furlanetto knee injury
A. Marusic muscle injury
D. Cataldi groin injury
F. Dele-Bashiru muscle injury
L. Pellegrini injury
N. Rovella injury
Patric ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Udinese lineup · 3-4-2-1

40 M. Okoye
77 E. Ebosse
28 O. Solet
14 J. Abankwah
11 H. Kamara
24 J. Piotrowski
8 J. Karlström
23 M. Vojvoda
46 Unai Gómez
32 J. Ekkelenkamp
9 K. Davis

Bench: S. Lovrić, Oier Zarraga, I. Gueye, N. Bertola, V. Bayo, C. Kabasele, G. Chakvetadze, L. Miller, B. Mrozek, G. Vinciati, L. JovanoviÄ, D. Padelli

Lazio lineup · 4-3-3

35 C. Mandas
17 Nuno Tavares
25 O. Provstgaard
5 D. Doekhi
15 R. Floriani Mussolini
24 K. Taylor
21 R. Belahyane
16 D. Frattesi
10 M. Zaccagni
9 A. Pinamonti
11 G. Isaksen

Bench: T. Noslin, M. Cancellieri, Pedraza, A. Przyborek, M. Lazzari, Ricardo Bordon, J. Šutalo, E. Motta, D. Renzetti, F. Serra, V. Farcomeni, A. Guðmundsson

Udinese vs Lazio head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Udinese 2 · draws 5 · Lazio 3.

20% 50% 30%

UdineseDrawsLazio

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-27	Lazio	3-3	Udinese	Serie A
2025-12-27	Udinese	1-1	Lazio	Serie A
2025-03-10	Lazio	1-1	Udinese	Serie A
2024-08-24	Udinese	2-1	Lazio	Serie A
2024-03-11	Lazio	1-2	Udinese	Serie A
2024-01-07	Udinese	1-2	Lazio	Serie A
2023-05-21	Udinese	0-1	Lazio	Serie A
2022-10-16	Lazio	0-0	Udinese	Serie A
2022-02-20	Udinese	1-1	Lazio	Serie A
2022-01-18	Lazio	1-0	Udinese	Coppa Italia

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Genoa v Como — match page 2026-09-04
Fiorentina vs Torino — team news & stats 2026-09-05
Inter vs Napoli 2026-09-05
Roma v Atalanta — match page 2026-09-05
Frosinone vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza 2026-09-06
Bologna v Sassuolo — match page 2026-09-06
Juventus vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Udinese, next: Inter v Udinese analysis
Lazio, previous: Lazio vs Genoa: odds and pick
Lazio, next: Lazio – AC Milan, 2026-09-12